We cut FY27/FY28 EPS estimates by 4.6%/4.8% led by 1) Subdued guidance of high single digit value growth and mid-single digit volume growth for 2HFY26 despite tailwinds from GST cut 2) higher competitive intensity in toothpaste, home care and juices business and 3) impending impact of GST transition even in 3Q26. Management has announced the launch of Dabur Ventures, with a capital allocation of Rs5bn, aimed at acquiring strategic stakes in highpotential, digital-first businesses. We view this initiative positively, as it enables Dabur to strengthen its presence in fast-evolving categories such as Personal Care, Health Care, Wellness Foods, Beverages, and Ayurveda, however this will accelerate growth after a lag.
OutlookWe estimate 9.7% Sales CAGR & 10.5% EPS CAGR over FY27-28. Dabur currently trades at 41xSepFY27 EPS, which leaves little room for significant upside. Retain Hold with a target price of Rs 490 (515 earlier).
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