Maruti Suzuki’s Q4 standalone EBITDA declined 9% y/y to Rs42.6bn, below our estimated Rs49.3bn. Domestic volumes would clock a 5% CAGR over FY25-27 due to higher income levels (income-tax cuts), a rebound in first-time buyers, rural demand, launches and lower finance costs. Exports would record a stronger, 16%, volume CAGR by levering Toyota/Suzuki’s global networks and portfolio expansion (e-Vitara). We expect healthy, 7%/12%/15%/18%, volume/revenue/EBITDA/ core PAT growth over FY25-27, driven by domestic and export volume/realisation growth and margin expansion. The stock quotes at attractive P/Es of 21x/19x FY26e/27e EPS, much lower than the past median of 28x.
OutlookWe retain a Buy rating with a lower sum-of-parts TP of Rs 13,350 (earlier Rs14,200), 25x FY27e core EPS of Rs465 and cash of Rs1,702/sh.
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