Emkay Global Financial' research report on Infosys
We attended Investor AI Day hosted by Infosys, where the management outlined its strategy of unlocking value from AI with the ongoing tech transition. KTAs: 1) Infosys laid out a two-pronged strategy focused on AI-first services to drive new demand and AI-augmented services to reinvent existing offerings to grow wallet share, negating the likely compression from productivity enhancement. 2) As per the management, the AI-first services market is estimated to be a USD300-400bn opportunity. 3) With decades of tech debt coming due, modernization projects (once too costly and complex) are now gaining traction as AI tools make large scale legacy transformation viable. 4) Enterprise AI budgets are maturing, with 23% of IT spend on AI and ~50% of firms having dedicated AI budgets as of end-2025. 5) Greenfield AI environments can deliver 15–50% task-level productivity improvements, though only ~1% of organizations have scaled AI fully across business functions. 6) AI can significantly improve productivity at task/project level, but achieving enterprise-wide gains remains difficult due to the complexity. 7) Infosys is engaged in AI work with 90% of top 200 clients and has over 4,600 AI projects underway. AI-first services contributed ~5.5% to revenue in Q3. 8) The talent landscape is shifting, with 92mn traditional IT jobs expected to be displaced and 170mn new AI centric roles emerging.
Outlook
Infosys maintains margin guidance, with growth tied to AI adoption and macro conditions, while AI-first services expansion is expected to more than offset the compression in legacy services. We retain BUY and TP of Rs1,750, at 22x Dec-27E EPS.
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