G R Infraprojects (GRIL)’s revenue grew 4.6% YoY (-28% QoQ) to ~INR17.8b in 2QFY23 and was 7% below our estimate. EBITDA margin stood at 14.6% (-170bp YoY). EBITDA declined 6% YoY to INR2.6b (13% below estimate). The quarter includes bonus/claims of INR63.6m (v/s INR1.3b in 1QFY23 and INR125.2m in 1QFY22). Higher other income and low depreciation saw APAT declining 2.5% YoY to INR1.6b, in line with estimate. Net working capital stood at 85 at end-2QFY23 (v/s 77 at end-1Q). Order book in 2QFY23 stood at INR156b (excluding L1). The order pipeline was strong (~INR550b in Road projects), with GRIL expecting INR150b of new project wins in FY23. The majority of new orders are expected from the Roads segment with the balance coming from Power T&D and Metro.
OutlookGRIL delivered muted execution in 2QFY23. Most of the projects awaiting appointed dates are likely to start by end-FY23. We have cut our estimates marginally to factor in slower execution and cautious outlook on margin improvement. With current order book, we expect GRIL to clock 11% revenue growth over FY22-24, and EBITDA margin in the 16-17% range. We maintain our BUY rating with an SoTP-based revised TP of INR1,510.
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