Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on Jindal Steel
Jindal Steel (JINDALST) reported weak consolidated operating performance in Q3FY26, impacted by higher opex (Rs3.5bn) on external coke purchases, higher coke rate in the initial teething period, weak flats pricing and low-margin flat products in the initial phase. These factors, coupled with increasing coking coal costs (USD2/t), led to EBITDA/t declining to Rs6,986 (ex-forex gains of Rs0.41bn). Average NSR fell sharper (7.2% QoQ) than industry average, while volumes grew 20% YoY, driven by the ramp-up of BF2 and BOF2. With the ramp-up of the captive coke oven battery and higher steel prices, the management expects EBITDA/t to recover in Q4. The management reiterated its FY26 sales volume guidance of 8.5-9mt, which suggests strong 15%+ volume growth in Q4.
Outlook
At CMP, the stock is trading at 9.2x/6.5x EV of FY27/28E EBITDA. Maintain ‘Accumulate’ with revised TP of Rs1,171 (earlier Rs1,100) as we roll forward and value it at same 7x EV of Mar’28E EBITDA.
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