Angel Broking's report on Coal India (CIL)
"Coal India (CIL) reported a 10.3% increase in e-auction volumes at 13.9MT, 15% higher than our estimate of 12.1MT. Realization/tonne was marginally below our expectation at Rs 2,387 (3% below our estimate of Rs 2,464). FSA realization/tonne came in much ahead of our expectations at Rs 1,408, vs our estimate of Rs 1,300. Blended realization remained flat (0.2%) on a yoy basis, while total offtake for the quarter increased 3.7%, leading to a 3.9% jump in revenues (2.9% ahead of our estimate). EBITDA margin increased 45bp yoy to 26% as higher staff costs and contractual expenses were offset by revenue growth and lower material and provisioning expenses. EBITDA at Rs 5,399cr was ahead of our expectations of Rs 5,226cr."
Outlook and valuation: "We raise our consolidated FY2016 and FY2017 EPS estimates by 2.9% and 3.7%, respectively, in view of the better than expected increase in realizations and cost absorption. We expect CIL’s production to increase 7.9% to 533MT in FY2016 and 573MT in FY2017. We expect offtake from the power sector to lag production growth in FY2016, leading to increased e-auction volumes. E-auction realization may remain low, owing to increased volumes. We value Coal India at 8x FY2017E Adj. EBITDA to arrive at our target price of Rs 425 and retain our Accumulate rating on the stock", says Angel Broking research report.
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