Why Credit Suisse is neutral on Lupin despite mkt thumbs-up

Moneycontrol Bureau

Mumbai-based pharma firm Lupin is on a roll supported by the weakening rupee, and more recently, a favorable ruling from an American court for its Yaz and Yasmin oral contraceptives.

The court ruled that generics could not be litigated for the absence of a stricter drug label as generics have to comply with the Hatch Waxman Act, which requires generics to strictly follow the label of the innovator.

Lupin is up nearly 7 percent in last five trading sessions and about 35 percent this year in an overall weak market. 

However, the path is not as clear as the market is factoring in, according to broking firm Credit Suisse. It says the US FDA plans to issue a rule by September 13 that would allow generics to make changes in their labeling, a step that could open up generics to liability if their drugs injure patients.

Credit Suisse is wary of German drug major Bayer AG which said it "disagrees" with a US court ruling that allowed Indian rival Lupin to sell generic version of its oral contraceptive (OC) tablet 'Yaz' in the American market and is "evaluating" options.

Bayer AG has set aside USD 1.5 billion in 2012 to cover Yasmin and Yaz lawsuits.

In this backdrop, Credit Suisse prefers staying neutral on Lupin. "While Mylan's ramp-up on Tricor has been slower than expected but high profits for Lupin are unlikely to stay for long in Tricor (Lupin currently has a 34 percent market share). Yaz and Yasmin launch is already priced in whereas Lupin is yet to get approval of Yaz and it is not crystal clear whether the generics are absolved of any potential lawsuit penalties," it said in its research note.