Silver crosses Rs 3 lakh mark: Should you buy, hold, or sell?

Silver Crosses Rs 3 Lakh Mark

• Silver hits record Rs 3 lakh/kg on MCX, up 206 percent year-on-year
• Geopolitical tensions and strong industrial demand drive safe-haven buying
• Experts advise profit-taking at highs but see long-term potential for silver

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Silver scaled a historic high on January 19, crossing the Rs 3 lakh-per-kg mark on the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX), as heightened geopolitical tensions and strong industrial demand drove investors toward safe-haven assets.

The metal surged to a record Rs 3,04,087 per kg at 12:29 pm IST, gaining 5.67 percent in a single session. Prices are now up nearly 206 percent over the past year. The previous peak of Rs 2,92,960 per kg was recorded on January 15, 2026.

The rally gathered momentum after fresh geopolitical concerns rattled global markets. Investor sentiment turned cautious after the US President Donald Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs of up to 25 percent on European countries over Greenland-related tensions if no agreement is reached by June.

The renewed rhetoric triggered a flight to traditional safe havens such as gold and silver. On the global front, spot silver touched an all-time high of $94.36 per ounce on Comex and later hovered around $93.18 per ounce, up 5.25 percent from the previous close.

While physical tightness is showing early signs of easing with silver flowing back from Comex warehouses to Europe, prices remain elevated. High valuations may temper industrial demand at the margin, but speculative appetite, particularly in China, continues to remain strong.

Shanghai silver prices are trading nearly $10 above London benchmarks, highlighting regional demand imbalances. "The market faces a structural supply deficit exacerbated by China's strict export licensing and limited mining growth, resulting in a severe drop in inventories," said Aamir Makda, Commodity & Currency Analyst, Choice Broking.

Beyond safe-haven buying, silver continues to draw strength from robust industrial demand, especially from clean energy, electronics, and electric vehicle applications. Investment inflows have further amplified price movements, adding to volatility.

Read more: Silver at record highs: Is the white metal headed for a crash after its steep run-up?

Silver price outlook: Buy, hold or sell? 

Silver’s uptrend began around $45 per ounce in October 2025 and accelerated sharply, reaching $82.7 by December. Experts believe the rally still has legs, supported by structural demand and supply constraints.

“Silver crossing the Rs 3 lakh per kg mark is a historic milestone, reflecting intensifying safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and global macro uncertainty. From an investment perspective, this breakout is not merely a short-term spike but part of a broader structural uptrend supported by supply constraints and robust industrial demand, particularly in solar, electronics, and electric vehicles,” said Justin Khoo, Senior Market Analyst – APAC, VT Market.

Khoo advises investors to avoid chasing prices at record highs. “Tactical profit-taking near these levels makes sense for short-term traders. However, for long-term investors, silver remains a compelling hedge against inflation and market uncertainty,” he said.

He added that the preferred strategy is to buy on meaningful dips while maintaining disciplined risk management. “The trend favours continued upside, but entry and exit points are crucial at these elevated levels,” Khoo noted.

Renisha Chainani, Head of Research at Augmont, advises that fresh buying at current levels should be staggered, rather than aggressive, to manage volatility. "Existing investors are advised to hold, with partial profit-booking on sharp spikes. A healthy correction or consolidation would be an opportunity to add. Unless key supports near Rs 2.85-2.90 lakh break decisively, the longer-term outlook for silver remains positive,' she said.

Looking ahead, markets are watching upcoming US PCE inflation data and the final Q3 GDP numbers for fresh cues. Despite near-term volatility, analysts say the broader macro and geopolitical backdrop continues to support silver bulls.

According to an Augmont report, silver is witnessing strong speculative interest from both buyers and sellers, leading to sharp and erratic price swings, suggesting heightened volatility may persist even as the longer-term outlook remains constructive. The next upside levels to watch are the 78.6 percent Fibonacci extension at $99–100 (Rs 3,20,000) and the 100 percent Fibonacci extension near $107 (Rs 3,40,000).

Makda, citing technical charts, explains that the market is expecting further upward momentum in silver, and immediate support would be at the 20-DEMA level, placed at 255,100. Daily SAR is placed at 249,500. For the upside levels, 261 percent of Trend-based Fib. Extension which is placed at 362,937.

"Although, in recent sessions, with prices’ upmove, we have observed an RSI bearish divergence on the Daily charts, which is a classic 'Red flag' warning. It suggests that while the price is still climbing and hitting new peaks, the internal momentum driving those gains is actually weakening. Along with this, we can see the fall in OI levels to 9850 lots parallel to price-rise so far in the March contract, which suggests a Long unwinding in Silver. Traders who already have long positions should look for a profit-booking at current levels," said Makda.