Gold slipped marginally on February 16, hovering near Rs 1.55 lakh ahead of key US data and Fed minutes

Gold price on Feb 16

Gold prices dipped slightly on February 16 as investors await fresh signals from the U.S. economy, with the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting scheduled for release on Wednesday.

The domestic price of silver on the MCX opened the session at Rs 1,54,743 per 10 grams of 24-carat purity, representing a decline of 0.74 percent from its previous close.

The metal took a sharp fall on Comex during early trade on Monday, declining from $5,050 per ounce, but recovered some of those losses to trade at $5,013 per ounce, though a decline of around 0.65 per cent from its previous close.

"Gold pushed back above $5,000 after weaker-than-expected US inflation reinforced expectations of Fed easing, driving the 10-year US Treasury yield lower and prompting market participants to price nearly 50 per cent odds of a third rate cut by December," said Manav Modi, Commodities Analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Headline CPI rose 2.4 percent year-on-year in January versus estimates of 2.5 percent and December’s 2.7 percent, while the monthly inflation print was also report 0.1 percent lower than estimates. Recent comments from Kevin Warsh signalling a preference for lower policy rates add to expectations of two 25bp cuts in March and June, which would further compress real yields and support gold inflows.

Meanwhile, the rupee traded slightly weaker at 90.59 against the US dollar, down 0.08 percent in a day and 0.18 percent in a week.

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City-wise gold prices in India today

Gold rates across India’s major cities showed remarkable uniformity, with only marginal differences due to local taxes, jeweller margins, and logistics costs.

Why is gold price down? Should you invest?

According to Modi, geopolitical risks remain elevated, with reports of Washington deploying the USS Gerald R. Ford to the Middle East amid stalled Iran nuclear talks boosting safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, markets are increasingly focused on the potential inflationary impact of renewed tariff threats from Trump, alongside lingering questions about the Fed's credibility.

"Notably, gold is trading at a discount for the first time in nearly a month, even as Chinese demand strengthens, with Shanghai warehouse stocks crossing 100 tonnes, highlighting robust physical buying interest. Today, US markets remain shut on the back of the Presidents' Day holiday, and China’s market remains shut for a week amidst the Lunar New Year holiday. The focus will be on the US PCE price index and the FOMC meeting minutes," said Modi.

Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, said resistance is now firmly placed near Rs 1,60,000, and if gold continues to trade below Rs 1,56,000, a retest of the Rs 1,51,000 support zone cannot be ruled out. "All eyes are on the Fed’s rate-cut timeline that will determine the next directional move in gold."