Gold price today rises 0.17% on MCX, tops $5,000 on Comex; is it time to invest?

• Gold prices rose slightly as tensions eased and the dollar strengthened.
• MCX gold traded at Rs 1,56,019 per 10g, up 0.17 percent
• Fed minutes and China’s market reopening may add volatility ahead

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Gold prices surged marginally on February 19 amid easing geopolitical tensions and a stronger dollar. The metal opened lower but quickly recovered some of its losses. Fed minutes and China’s market reopening may add volatility ahead.

The domestic futures price of gold on MCX was trading at Rs 1,56,019 per 10 grams of 24-carat purity as of 9:29 am IST, up 0.17 percent from the previous close.

The spot price of gold on the international market fell marginally during the early trade, touching a low of $4,930 per ounce, but recovered some of those losses to trade at $5,000.50 per ounce (4:03 am GMT) on Comex, though it is still a decline of 0.18 per cent in the last 24 hours.

The Indian Bullion Jewellers Association (IBJA) set the standard gold price at Rs 1,51,963 per 10 grams during its 6:30 pm rate session on February 18, up 0.51 percent from the previous close. These rates form the benchmark for the RBI’s Sovereign Gold Bond (SGB) valuations, calculated using the previous week’s average closing price.

The rupee traded at 90.86 against the US dollar on Thursday. The USD-INR pair continues to oscillate within a narrow band, with resistance placed near 90.25 and support seen around 90.90. Analysts say that a break on either side could trigger a sharper directional move in the near term.

Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, said, “The broader structure for gold still reflects a weak undertone with lower highs and lower lows in place. A decisive break above $5,000 on CME would be required to negate the short-term weakness and revive bullish momentum. Immediate support is placed near Rs 1,48,000, while resistance remains around Rs 1,55,000."

City-wise gold prices in India today

Gold rates across India’s major cities showed remarkable uniformity, with only marginal differences due to local taxes, jeweller margins, and logistics costs.

Gold price outlook: Should you invest?

The Augmont Bullion report, published on February 18, noted that gold prices moved lower as investor preference for safe-haven assets eased. In recent sessions, geopolitical tensions have shown signs of stabilising, reducing the urgency for defensive precious metals allocations. As a result, some investors chose to book profits after the recent rally.

At the same time, the US dollar strengthened, emerging as the dominant factor influencing price action. While January’s softer inflation data supported expectations of multiple rate cuts this year, strong nonfarm payroll numbers, steady private hiring, and continued economic growth have reduced the likelihood of an aggressive or immediate easing cycle. This shift in expectations has supported the dollar and created headwinds for gold and silver.

Geopolitical developments, including renewed US–Iran nuclear talks and ongoing Russia–Ukraine negotiations, continue to bolster gold’s safe-haven appeal. However, in the current phase, currency movements have had a stronger impact than geopolitical factors.

Markets are now awaiting the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting for clearer signals on the future interest rate path, which will likely guide the next move in precious metals.

"In the short term, gold prices are likely to consolidate within the $4,650–$5,100 range (Rs 1,47,000–Rs 1,60,000). A buy-on-dips and sell-on-rallies approach is advisable," the report stated.