MC EXCLUSIVE New GDP base year to correct underestimated farm data; horticulture GVA expected to surge

The new GDP series will have the base year 2022-23.

The new series of GDP, set to be launched in February 2026, may show a “reasonably higher” share of agriculture sector in the overall gross-value-added of the country, Moneycontrol has learnt. This is because, the new series will use crop output data collected using “modern, tech-enabled” methods.

"The data of the production of crops, such as food grains, oilseeds, and horticulture, is currently underestimated," a government official told Moneycontrol. "Horticulture particularly is significantly underestimated."

"For estimation of food grains, the new GDP series will largely reflect the data collected using satellite-mapping. And for horticulture, a refined tech-enabled methodology will be used to estimate yields for a far more number of crops through bio-mass," the person explained.

The official says that in the current GDP series, with base year 2011-12, the share of ‘agriculture, livestock, forestry and fishing’ in the overall GVA is 14-15 percent. "But due to better estimation of crop output, this may rise to about 17-18 percent." To be sure, GDP is the sum of GVA and net indirect taxes (Indirect Taxes – Subsidies).

Former Chief Statistician of India TCA Anant says that horticulture estimates have traditionally been “problematic”, as the agriculture ministry was not been able to create a robust system of estimating crop yields.

“It’s possible, the agriculture ministry has developed a new way of calculating crop output, which reflects the real picture. Horticulture has become a bigger component of farm income than food grains, and it should be visible in data," Anant added.

How are crop yields measured?

The agriculture ministry releases output data of 85 horticulture crops, every year, which is distributed among six sub-heads: fruits, vegetables, honey, medicinal, plantation crops, and spices.

Meanwhile, since 2024, the ministry is increasingly relying on satellite technology and data integration to improve the accuracy of food grain production estimates. Under the FASAL (Forecasting Agricultural output using Space, Agro-meteorology and Land-based observations) programme, the Mahalanobis National Crop Forecast Centre (MNCFC) generates satellite-based pre-harvest production estimates for 11 major crops, including paddy, wheat, jute, cotton, sugarcane, soybean, etc.

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation compiles the agriculture sector’s GVA data using the following data: (a) Advance Estimates of Production of Food grains, Oilseeds and other Commercial Crops for; (b) Advance Estimates of Area & Production of Horticulture crops; (c) Estimates of Major Livestock Products; and (d) Fish Production estimates.

According to agriculture ministry, horticulture crop yields–the amount of crop harvested per unit of land area—are estimated through ‘Coordinated Programme on Horticulture Assessment and Management’ (CHAMAN) project, launched in 2014.

The project estimates yield using remote sensing technology and sample survey methodology for estimation of area and production of horticultural crops.

Remote sensing essentially measures how much near-infrared light plants reflect. A higher reflection indicates high biomass and high chlorophyll, which correlates strongly with high yields in crops. Also, the sensors predict yield by calculating the surface area of leaves per unit of ground. For horticultural crops, a higher leaf-area means more light interception, which drives the biomass needed for fruit production.

However, the CHAMAN project is not yet predicting yields for all the crops – but only limited to fruits and vegetables. "The agriculture ministry will now use it for estimating yields of other sub-sectors as well, which will give better estimates. Over time, the robustness of the data, which is included in GVA data will improve," the official explained.

MoSPI is currently working on revising the base year of GDP from 2011-12 to 2022-23. An Advisory Committee on National Account Statistics (ACNAS) is meeting regularly to review the data sources included in the GDP data, and the methodology to calculate the data.

A discussion paper released by MoSPI, earlier this month, says the revised national accounts series will draw on datasets such as e-Vahan, alongside newer household and enterprise surveys, to improve the accuracy of GDP estimation.