Modest but realistic airline summer schedule on the cards

Airlines

Traditionally, airlines have relied on seasonality to plan their schedules. Of course, everything has gone for a toss since March 2020, when COVID-19 reached India. Until early 2022, air traffic was entirely dependent on COVID waves. Once things normalised, air traffic is coming back with a vengeance so much so that in February 2023, the highest single-day, post-COVID traffic was recorded in what’s traditionally a lean quarter.

Data shared by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) shows the regulator has approved 22,907 weekly flights across airlines in the summer schedule, compared to 25,309 weekly flights last year, a decrease of 9.5 percent. The regulator had approved 21,941 weekly flights across airlines in the ongoing winter schedule. Sequentially, the change is 4.4 percent.

This will be the last full season of operations for AirAsia India, which will merge with Air India Express by November this year. This will also be the last summer schedule for Vistara, which is to merge with Air India by March 2024.

The summer is expected to be a bumper one for airlines after a terrific winter on what is still being classified as revenge tourism post the pandemic. Passenger numbers have touched pre-COVID levels and on certain days are averaging higher than ever before.

March has so far seen the average flight count at 2,982 compared to the approved schedule of 3,134 daily flights. The lag is mainly due to SpiceJet, which has not been operating even half its approved schedule. In all probability, the situation is likely to be the same in summer.

IndiGo trumps everyone in absolute growth. The airline has approval for 11,465 flights per week – the highest ever in its history and 13 percent more than what had been approved for the current winter schedule. The airline has already added flights in the existing schedule, despite many groundings due to engine issues. IndiGo has approval for 197 additional daily flights over the winter schedule.

Air India is growing by 10 percent and has approval for 2,178 weekly flights and so has Go FIRST, which has approval for 1,538 weekly flights.

AirAsia India will more or less remain constant with efforts likely shifting towards integration with Air India Express before a spurt of growth. Vistara is shrinking 5 percent which makes the schedule realistic for the airline. The additional capacity that is planned will be utilised for international operations rather than domestic before Vistara, too, kicks off a major integration exercise with Air India.

Akasa Air is seeing a quantum jump with 1.5 times the flights it started with in the winter schedule. The airline still will not have a substantial market share, but at its rate of growth, it will start pushing Go FIRST, SpiceJet and AirAsia India (to be Air India Express) by next summer.

SpiceJet is shrinking. The airline had approval for 3,193 weekly flights in the current schedule but has never reached that number. The airline plans to have 2,240 flights in the summer schedule, a shrinkage of 30 percent by departure count. If at all the airline ends up flying its entire approved schedule, it is in serious contention to reclaim its second spot in market share.

Among the regional carriers, flybig will continue with its existing operations while Star Air is looking to add flights, although it is yet to operationalise its first E175, with three more expected soon.

Where are the planes?

Aviation supply chains are far from returning to normal. Various estimates suggest that anywhere between 50 and 75 aircraft are grounded, largely due to replacement engines being unavailable. While airlines work closely with the Original Equipment Manufacturers to resolve this issue, IndiGo has extended the leases on older planes, including the A320ceo, which were to have been phased out by now. Go FIRST is the other airline on which this had an impact, yet the airline managed to carry a significant share of the market in December and January.

While passenger traffic may have reached pre-COVID numbers, the flights deployed have been much fewer than before and that means fuller flights for the airlines.

Airlines declared bumper profits in Q3 and if traffic is an indication, Q4 would also turn out to be profitable. The summer schedule will cover Q1, Q2 and a few days of Q3 of the next financial year. IndiGo and Go FIRST would be hoping for stabilisation of aircraft availability while Air India will induct additional narrow-body aircraft.

The country is largely over COVID now but how long will revenge tourism last? The war in Europe is still raging and no one knows what turn it would take. Oil prices are still high and the rupee has slid close to 10 percent over the last year. How will this all play out with profitability? There is a certainty that air fares will remain high as airlines try to make ends meet.

More airports coming on the map and fewer dropping off is a solace for the passengers.