What next for Sensex after today’s 950-point fall; will Nifty hold 25,000 amid global jitters, technical cracks

Share Market Today: Sensex, Nifty Update

• Sensex fell 961 points, Nifty closed below 25,200 on Friday
• Nifty risks deeper fall if it breaks below 25,000 support
• IT sector dropped over 19 percent in February amid AI concerns

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After a sharp sell-off that dragged the Sensex down 961 points and pushed the Nifty below 25,200 on Friday, the focus now shifts squarely to whether Indian equities can stabilise near critical support levels. Investors will now watch whether the correction deepens towards the 24,800 zone as weak global cues, elevated volatility and geopolitical tensions keep markets range-bound amid a weakening technical structure.

Technically, the pressure has intensified. The Nifty has slipped below the 25,400 support band and is now hovering near the 25,100-25,150 region, which marks a key gap area and short-term reference zone. A decisive break below the psychological 25,000 mark could accelerate losses towards 24,900-24,700, analysts warned.

Technical pressure intensifies on Nifty

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said the fall below the 200-day EMA has further weakened the immediate structure. “A sustained move back above 25,400 would be necessary to neutralise the negative outlook. Conversely, a break below 25,000 may accelerate losses toward the 24,900-24,700 zone,” he said, adding that momentum indicators remain in bearish territory.

Bank Nifty is also at a crucial juncture. The index ended near 60,500 after repeated rejection from the 61,200-61,400 supply zone. Derivatives positioning indicates fresh short build-up, with aggressive call writing around 61,000 and open interest shifting towards lower strikes -- suggesting a carry-forward bearish bias unless the banking index decisively reclaims 61,100.

• Also read | Ramesh Damani flags defence, metals and pharma as investing opportunities beyond AI

Macro, geopolitical risks cloud sentiment

Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research (Wealth Management) at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, expects Indian equities to trade sideways with a cautious bias in the week ahead amid sustained global volatility. “Although domestic growth trends and sectoral traction provide a degree of support, the direction of institutional flows and ongoing macro developments will largely shape near-term market movement,” he said.

Investor sentiment has remained restrained amid weak global cues and rising geopolitical risks, following inconclusive talks between the US and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear programme. "The lack of progress in US-Iran nuclear talks has intensified concerns of further escalation of Middle East tensions," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments.

Global factors dominate

With the earnings season nearing its end and domestic triggers thinning out, global macro factors have regained prominence. Foreign flows remain inconsistent, and volatility has resurfaced, with India VIX climbing nearly 5 percent on Friday.

The IT sector, despite showing relative resilience during the session, has fallen more than 19 percent in February -- its steepest monthly decline since September 2008 -- reflecting the ongoing repricing of AI-disruption risks. “Persistent AI‑related uncertainty is supporting safe‑haven flows,” said Nair.

Although IT stocks are witnessing selective low‑level buying after recent corrections, the broader trend remains subdued, he added. “With FIIs staying cautious and volatility likely to resurface, markets may continue to trade within a narrow range."

Marginal domestic support triggers

At the same time, domestic fundamentals offer some support at the margin. India’s Q3 FY26 GDP growth, released under the revised base year series, came in at around 7.8 percent. Analysts said this signals resilient and broad-based economic momentum supported by steady domestic demand.

Given this, Khemka recommends shifting towards domestically oriented sectors with stronger earnings clarity and relatively lower sensitivity to AI-related disruption. Financials, insurance, FMCG and healthcare appear better placed, while selective capital expenditure and industrial-linked segments with healthy order books may continue to present opportunities.

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