Trading Plan: Will Nifty 50 decisively break previous day's low, Bank Nifty see a consolidation breakdown?

Nifty Trading Plan for February 13

• Decisively breaking previous day's low of 25,750 can drive Nifty toward 25,650–25,600
• On higher side, the 25,900–26,000 range may remain a key resistance zone
• Support for Bank Nifty is placed at 60,250–60,000 levels

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The Nifty 50 negated the higher high–higher low structure of the previous three consecutive sessions, and the momentum indicators signal near-term consolidation, though the index held above all key moving averages. If the index decisively breaks the previous day's low of 25,750, a fall toward 25,650–25,600 (20- and 100-day EMAs) can't be ruled out. However, in case of a rebound, the 25,900–26,000 range may remain a key resistance zone. Meanwhile, if the Bank Nifty sees a consolidation breakdown, the 60,250–60,000 levels are to be watched on the downside. However, decisively breaking out above 60,900 can open the door for 61,200 and then a record high, according to experts.

On February 12, the Nifty 50 slipped 147 points (0.57 percent) to 25,807, while the Bank Nifty declined 6 points to 60,740. The market breadth was dominated by bears, as about 1,909 shares declined against 1,002 advancing shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivative Research Analyst at Samco Securities

Nifty came under pressure following heavy selling in the IT pack, opening gap-down but avoiding structural damage as it stabilised within a narrow intraday band. The index continues to defend the crucial 25,600–25,700 zone, where the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and short-term moving averages converge, reinforcing it as a strong demand cluster.

Repeated rejection near the psychological 26,000 mark highlights persistent overhead supply, keeping the broader tone sideways to mildly bearish. Options data shows aggressive Call writing at 26,000, establishing it as a formidable resistance, while Put positioning near 25,500 provides a cushion on declines. Until a decisive and sustained breakout above 26,000 materialises, the index is likely to remain range-bound, with a tactical sell-on-rise strategy favoured.

Key Resistance: 25,900, 26,050, 26,150

Key Support: 25,750, 25,650, 25,550

Strategy: Traders may consider a Bear Call Spread for the February 17 expiry by selling one lot of 25,600 CE at Rs 264 and buying one lot of 25,850 CE at Rs 97. This setup is designed to capitalise on potential downside momentum.

Stop-Loss: Hold this strategy strictly, with the maximum Mark-to-Market (MTM) loss capped at Rs 5,437 to ensure disciplined risk management.

Target: Hold this strategy, aiming for a maximum Mark-to-Market (MTM) profit target of Rs 10,813, while considering profit booking once MTM gains exceed Rs 5,500.

Jay Mehta, Technical Research at JM Financial Services

Nifty has remained range-bound and lacklustre over the past seven sessions following the trade deal announcement, confined between 25,470 and 26,000. Until a decisive break occurs on either side, muted action is likely to persist.

The overall bias stays positive as long as 25,470 holds firmly. The price trades above key EMAs, with the 20- and 50-day EMAs converging near 25,650–25,700, acting as immediate support. Momentum indicators remain in bullish territory but signal near-term consolidation before the next directional move. VIX has cooled over 30 percent since Budget Day, and broader market participation is gradually improving.

Key Resistance: 25,940, 26,090, 26,330

Key Support: 25,680, 25,470

Strategy: Accumulate Nifty Futures at CMP or on minor dips toward 25,680, with a stop-loss at 25,400, targeting 26,090 and 26,300.

Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking

The Nifty 50's intraday structure on Thursday reflects sustained selling at higher levels and weak buying interest, highlighting a cautious market tone.

Technically, immediate resistance is seen in the 26,000–26,050 zone, while crucial support is placed in the 25,700–25,500 band. The daily RSI reading of 53.87 indicates neutral momentum with a slight bearish tilt, suggesting limited upside potential in the short term.

Meanwhile, India VIX rose by 1.54 percent to 11.72, pointing to a modest increase in volatility expectations. In the derivatives segment, heavy Put writing at 25,800 and strong Call writing at 26,000 indicate a narrow trading range. As long as Nifty holds above 25,700 in futures on a closing basis, a selective buy-on-decline approach remains valid, with a strict stop-loss at 25,500.

Key Resistance: 26,000, 26,050

Key Support: 25,700, 25,500

Strategy: Buy on dips near 25,700 levels for a target of 26,000–26,050 levels, with a stop-loss at 25,500 on a closing basis.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivative Research Analyst at Samco Securities

Nifty Bank continues to outperform the benchmark, holding firm within a tight four-session range and signalling underlying strength. The index is steadily building a demand base in the 60,400–60,250 zone, reinforced by the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and the 10-day moving average. Higher lows and sustained trading above short-term averages reflect constructive consolidation rather than weakness.

Options positioning shows strong Put writing near 60,500, cushioning downside risk, while Call build-up at 61,000 caps immediate upside. The RSI near 60 indicates improving momentum. A decisive move above 61,000 could trigger fresh upside expansion, while dips toward support may attract accumulation, keeping the buy-on-dips strategy favourable.

Key Resistance: 60,850, 61,100, 61,300

Key Support: 60,500, 60,250, 60,000

Strategy: Traders may look to go long on a decisive breakout above the 60,950–61,000 zone in Nifty Bank February Futures, with a strict stop-loss placed below 60,750. On the upside, profit booking can be considered in the 61,300–61,400 range.

Jay Mehta, Technical Research at JM Financial Services

Bank Nifty continues to display superior relative strength compared to Nifty. Though movement has been sideways and subdued over the past seven sessions post-trade deal, it holds comfortably above key EMAs, with multiple bullish gaps in recent weeks signalling inherent strength.

If the February 9 gap-up gets filled, short-term pressure may emerge; otherwise, a sideways-to-bullish bias is likely. It is currently consolidating in a tight range over the past four days. Momentum indicators remain bullish but suggest further consolidation before the next leg. The bias remains positive as long as 59,500 holds as short-term support.

Key Resistance: 60,786, 61,190, 61,750

Key Support: 60,100, 59,500, 59,000

Strategy: Gradually accumulate Bank Nifty Futures at CMP or on minor dips till 60,100, with a stop-loss at 59,500, targeting 61,190 and 61,750.