Trade setup for Muhurat day of Samvat 2081: Top 15 things to know before the opening bell

Nifty Trade Setup for Muhurat Day

The Nifty 50 maintained its downtrend even on the monthly expiry day, October 31, tracking weakness in global peers. The index dropped more than half a percent, with volumes slightly above average. Trading below all short- to medium-term moving averages is a concern. A decisive break below 24,100, the immediate support, could drag the index down toward 23,900. However, on the upside, 24,500 is expected to act as a key hurdle, experts noted.

1) Key Levels For The Nifty 50 (24,205)

Resistance based on pivot points: 24,326, 24,374, and 24,450

Support based on pivot points: 24,174, 24,127, and 24,050

Special Formation: The Nifty 50 formed a bearish candlestick pattern on the daily charts, showing a lower high-lower low formation and consistently trading below the 20-, 50-, and 100-day EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages). There was also a negative crossover in the momentum indicator RSI (Relative Strength Index). On the weekly scale, the index recorded a small bearish candle with a long upper shadow, indicating selling pressure at higher levels, yet it still held on to the previous week's low of 24,074.

2) Key Levels For The Bank Nifty

Resistance based on pivot points: 51,862, 52,025, and 52,287

Support based on pivot points: 51,337, 51,175, and 50,912

Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 52,330, 52,835

Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 51,266, 50,274

Special Formation: The Bank Nifty sustained a lower top-lower bottom formation and corrected for the second consecutive session with above-average volumes. The index fell by 332 points to 51,475 and dropped below the 20- and 50-day EMAs, forming a bearish candlestick pattern with a long upper and minor lower shadow on the daily charts. However, on the weekly timeframe, the index gained 1.35 percent with above-average volumes and recorded a bullish candlestick pattern with an upper shadow, indicating selling pressure at higher levels.

3) Nifty Call Options Data

According to the monthly options data, the maximum open interest was seen at the 24,200 strike (with 1.63 crore contracts). This level can act as a key level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 24,300 strike (1.09 crore contracts), and the 25,000 strike (99.96 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 24,200 strike, which saw an addition of 1.45 crore contracts, followed by the 24,300 and 24,100 strikes, which added 78.66 lakh and 10.94 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 24,600 strike, which shed 44.6 lakh contracts, followed by the 24,500 and 25,000 strikes, which shed 31.23 lakh and 17.3 lakh contracts, respectively.

4) Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the 24,200 strike holds the maximum open interest (with 1.82 crore contracts), which can act as a key level for the Nifty. It was followed by the 24,000 strike (71.05 lakh contracts), and the 24,100 strike (66.51 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 24,200 strike, which saw an addition of 1.25 crore contracts, followed by the 23,800, and 23,700 strikes, with 23.02 lakh, and 18.42 lakh contracts added, respectively, while the Put unwinding was seen at the 24,400 strike, which shed 29.49 lakh contracts, followed by the 24,000, and 24,300 strikes, which shed 26.18 lakh and 19.76 lakh contracts, respectively.

5) Bank Nifty Call Options Data

According to the weekly options data, the maximum open interest was seen at the 52,000 strike, with 20.1 lakh contracts. This can act as a key resistance level for the index in the short term. It was followed by the 53,000 strike (19.49 lakh contracts) and the 52,500 strike (18.65 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was visible at the 52,500 strike (with the addition of 11.36 lakh contracts), followed by the 52,000 strike (9.75 lakh contracts) and the 53,000 strike (8.78 lakh contracts), while there was hardly any unwinding seen.

6) Bank Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the 51,500 strike holds the maximum open interest (with 10.15 lakh contracts), which can act as a key level for the index. This was followed by the 51,000 strike (9.07 lakh contracts) and the 50,000 strike (7.67 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was observed at the 51,500 strike (which added 4.28 lakh contracts), followed by the 51,000 strike (3.29 lakh contracts) and the 50,200 strike (3.14 lakh contracts), while the maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 52,000 strike, which shed 72,930 contracts.

7) Funds Flow (Rs crore)

8) Put-Call Ratio

The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR), which indicates the mood of the market, climbed to 1.05 on October 31, from 0.91 levels in the previous session.

The increasing PCR, or being higher than 0.7 or surpassing 1, means traders are selling more Put options than Call options, which generally indicates the firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market. If the ratio falls below 0.7 or moves towards 0.5, then it indicates selling in Calls is higher than selling in Puts, reflecting a bearish mood in the market.

9) India VIX

Volatility has maintained its upward trajectory for the third consecutive session, reaching a fresh two-and-a-half-month high. Bulls need to remain cautious until it settles into lower zones around 12-13. The India VIX, the fear indicator, climbed by 0.26 percent to a level of 15.55.

10) Long Build-up (3 Stocks)

A long build-up was seen in 3 stocks. An increase in open interest (OI) and price indicates a build-up of long positions.

11) Long Unwinding (103 Stocks)

103 stocks saw a decline in open interest (OI) along with a fall in price, indicating long unwinding.

12) Short Build-up (11 Stocks)

11 stocks saw an increase in OI along with a fall in price, indicating a build-up of short positions.

13) Short-Covering (66 Stocks)

66 stocks saw short-covering, meaning a decrease in OI, along with a price increase.

14) High Delivery Trades and High Rollovers

Here are the stocks that saw a high share of delivery trades. A high share of delivery reflects investing (as opposed to trading) interest in a stock.

Here are the stocks which saw the highest rollovers on expiry day.

15) Stocks Under F&O Ban

Securities banned under the F&O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.

Stocks added to F&O ban: Nil

Stocks retained in F&O ban: Nil

Stocks removed from F&O ban: Nil