Trade deal optimism: This brokerage sees bull case target for Nifty nearly 20% higher at 30,497 by Feb 2027

Nifty rise to trade higher.

• PL Capital sets Nifty bull case target at 30,497 by Feb 2027.
• Brokerage sees early signs of demand revival and trade deals.
• Key sectors: banks, financials, healthcare, auto, capital goods.

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Brokerage firm PL Capital has pegged a bull case target of 30,497 for the Nifty by February 2027, nearly 20 percent higher from current levels, in its latest India Strategy note.

In the bull case scenario, the brokerage said it values the Nifty at a price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 20 times and arrives at a target of 30,497, revised from 30,783 earlier. In the bear case, it said the index could trade at a 10 percent discount to long-period average (LPA), with a target of 26,486 compared to 26,735 earlier.

The brokerage noted that the Nifty has been hovering in a narrow band of around 5–6 percent over the past nine months, indicating a prolonged consolidation. This comes amid a 9–9.5 percent cut in Nifty EPS estimates for FY26 and FY27, global geopolitical uncertainties and concerns around tariff-related issues.

However, it said early signs of improvement are visible. India has concluded several trade agreements, including with the US and the European Union, and demand is showing initial signs of revival supported by low inflation, GST rationalisation and interest rate cuts.

Corporate performance has remained resilient, with sales, EBITDA and PAT growth of 9.9 percent, 16.4 percent and 16.7 percent, respectively, for its coverage universe. At the same time, the brokerage has trimmed Nifty EPS estimates by 2.9 percent, 1.7 percent and 0.7 percent for FY26, FY27 and FY28, respectively, while building in a 16.3 percent EPS CAGR over FY26–28.

The note said a renewed thrust on defence, data centres, infrastructure and ports, high-speed rail corridors, renewables and the manufacturing ecosystem augurs well for growth in the coming years. It added that the next five to 10 years are likely to be driven by asset creation and technology-intensive industries.

According to the brokerage, trade agreements with the US and the European Union are expected to benefit manpower-intensive sectors such as textiles, gems and jewellery, marine products, leather and handicrafts. It also said these deals could position India as a manufacturing hub for auto components, data centres, defence, aerospace and consumables.

PL Capital said it values the Nifty at a 5 percent discount to its 15-year average PE at 18.3 times, with a December 2027 EPS estimate of 1,525, and has set a 12-month target of 27,958, revised from 28,814 earlier at 18.7 times December 2027 EPS.

The brokerage said it remains overweight on banks, diversified financials, healthcare, consumer, auto and capital goods and defence as key themes. It cautioned that the impact of AI-led transformation, the likelihood of El Nino and near-bottom interest rates and inflation levels will need to be monitored.

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