Technical View: Nifty logs biggest weekly loss in a year; Iran war-driven oil spike puts 24,300 at risk next week, Bank Nifty slips below Budget-day low

Nifty Outlook for next week

• Nifty logs biggest weekly loss in a year
• 24,000 likely to be a key support for Nifty next week
• 25,000 expected to be crucial hurdle for Nifty
• Bank Nifty crashes 4.54%, the biggest weekly loss since December 2024

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The Nifty 50 gave up all its previous day's gains and fell decisively below 24,500 on March 6, reporting the biggest weekly loss in the last one year, as bearish sentiment remained strong with the index trading well below all key moving averages and showing no signs of improvement in momentum indicators.

Spiking oil prices to a 19-month high, amid further deepening geopolitical tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran, sent global equity markets down, resulting in a sharp correction in Indian equity benchmarks.

Next week, 24,300 (which coincides with the upward-sloping long support trendline and the current week's low touched on Wednesday) is expected to be a crucial zone. A decisive fall below it can drive the index toward 24,050–24,000 (the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement of the April 2025 low to the January 2026 high, and also a psychological support level). However, sustaining above it could keep the market in consolidation with range-bound trading, with crucial resistance at 25,000–25,200, experts said.

The Nifty 50 opened lower and remained under the bears' control throughout the session. In fact, the index extended losses as the day progressed and closed at 24,450, down 315 points (1.27 percent), forming a long bearish candle on the daily charts with a lower high–lower low formation, indicating weakness.

“The present market action signals that Nifty has negated the bullish sentiment that was created after the sharp gain on Thursday. This is not a good sign and suggests that the Nifty could retest Wednesday's low of 24,300 in the short term,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, adding that immediate resistance is placed at 24,700.

Momentum indicators and oscillators remained in sell mode on both the daily and weekly charts. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily charts fell to 33.45, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) maintained a bearish bias with further expansion in the red histogram.

For the week, the index plunged 2.89 percent, the biggest weekly loss since February 2025, and formed a red candle with a long upper shadow and a minor lower shadow on the weekly timeframe, signalling negative bias with pressure at higher levels while sustaining below short- and medium-term moving averages.

Nilesh Jain, VP and Head of Technical and Derivative Research at Centrum Finverse, also agreed with Nagaraj Shetti, saying the broader structure remains weak, and any pullback is likely to attract selling pressure.

Meanwhile, the India VIX remained in elevated zones, rising 11.33 percent to 19.88 on Friday and surging 45 percent during the week, marking a major risk for bulls. Any further rise in volatility could intensify downside risks for the market.

The weekly options data also suggested that 24,000, where the maximum Put open interest is placed, is expected to be a key support in the short term, while 25,000, which has the maximum Call open interest, is likely to be a crucial hurdle on the higher side. This means the index may possibly trade in the 24,000–25,000 range next week.

Bank Nifty

A severe correction was seen in the banking index, which underperformed the benchmark Nifty 50. The Bank Nifty plummeted 1,273 points (2.15 percent) to close at 57,783, exactly at the Budget-day low, though intraday it dipped to 57,696. It formed a long bearish candle on the daily scale, weakening the market mood.

Now the 200-day EMA (57,430) is expected to be at major risk, considering the index finally closed well below the 100-day EMA.

Notably, with Friday’s close, the index has closed below its 20-week EMA for the first time since September 2025, indicating a potential shift in medium-term momentum, with bears possibly gaining strength.

For the week, the banking index crashed 4.54 percent, the biggest weekly loss since December 2024, and formed a long red candle with an upper shadow on the weekly timeframe, signalling that bears have a strong upper hand.

“The immediate support is placed in the 57,400–57,300 zone, which coincides with the 200-day EMA. Any sustainable move below this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its weakness towards 56,900, followed by 56,500 in the short term,” said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

On the upside, the 58,200–58,300 zone is likely to act as immediate resistance, he added.