Technical View: Bears to tighten grip if Nifty 50 breaks 24,900 next week; Bank Nifty slips decisively below 58,800 as VIX at fresh 7-month closing high

Nifty Outlook for Next Week

• Bears to tighten grip if Nifty 50 breaks 24,900 next week
• Bank Nifty slips decisively below 58,800 as VIX at fresh 7-month closing high
• Weekly options data suggested that Nifty 50 likely to trade within broad range of 24,500–25,500

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The Nifty 50 failed to add further gains over the previous session, plunging nearly 1 percent as bears tightened their grip on the market on January 23. The index shed 2.51 percent (646 points) for the week, marking the biggest weekly decline since September 2025. Considering the sell signals in momentum indicators and the rise in VIX to a fresh seven-month closing high, bearish sentiment may prevail during the budget week.

The benchmark index decisively closed below the 200-day EMA. As a result, it is now trading below all key moving averages, with the 10-, 20-, and 50-day EMAs trending downward. The 100-day EMA has also moderately turned down, while the 200-day DEMA remains flat.

If the index sustains below the 200-day DEMA (25,163), a break below 24,900 (the week’s low) cannot be ruled out next week, followed by 24,600, which is a crucial support zone. However, in the case of a bounce back amid likely consolidation, the 200-day DEMA is expected to act as an immediate hurdle, followed by 25,300–25,350 as a crucial resistance zone, experts said.

The Nifty 50 opened higher above 25,300 but could not sustain those levels for long and lost all gains within the first hour itself. The index extended its fall as the day progressed and hit an intraday low of 25,025 before closing 241 points (0.95 percent) lower at 25,049.

The index also violated its rising trendline support and formed a long bearish candle on both daily and weekly charts, signalling weakness. Momentum indicators also flashed sell signals on the daily and weekly timeframes. The daily RSI stood at 29.12, while the MACD maintained bearish crossovers with weakness in the histogram. However, the Stochastic RSI remained positive in the oversold zone.

“While a short-term pullback cannot be ruled out, the Nifty would need to decisively reclaim the 25,300 level to trigger any meaningful short-covering rally towards the 25,600 zone. On the downside, a breach below 25,000 could intensify selling pressure and drag the index towards the 24,800 levels,” said Nilesh Jain, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research Analyst (Equity Research) at Centrum Broking.

Further adding to the cautious undertone, India VIX surged 6.3 percent to close at 14.19, signalling elevated market uncertainty. The VIX rallied 24.8 percent for the week, extending its uptrend for the fourth consecutive week and indicating greater caution for bulls.

Ahead of the monthly F&O expiry in the upcoming week (Tuesday), market volatility is expected to remain high, according to Nilesh.

Weekly options data suggested that the Nifty 50 is likely to trade within a broad range of 24,500–25,500, with immediate resistance at 25,200–25,300 and support at 25,000–24,900.

Bank Nifty

The banking index witnessed heavier selling pressure than the benchmark Nifty 50, declining 727 points (1.23 percent) to 58,473 and forming a long bearish candle on both daily and weekly charts. The index fell 2.7 percent for the week, marking its biggest weekly correction since August 2025.

Momentum indicators were weak on both daily and weekly scales, with the daily RSI falling to 38.98. The MACD slipped below the zero line with further weakness in the histogram, highlighting a sustained bearish bias.

The Bank Nifty decisively slipped below the 50-day EMA as well as its trendline support at 58,800 in a single session, reflecting strong selling pressure.

“The overall structure suggests that the index has clearly entered a ‘sell on rise’ phase. On the downside, the index may test its 100-day moving average, which also acts as a positional support near 57,700. Immediate support is placed at 58,000, while resistance is seen in the 58,800–58,900 zone,” said Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.