Sensex, Nifty set for tepid start amid escalating trade tensions; key levels to track on July 14

Despite the sharp decline in the index, India VIX remained relatively subdued, edging up by just 1.24 percent to settle at 11.81, still well below the psychological threshold of 15.

Benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex are likely to open flat on July 14, as renewed global trade tensions weigh on investor sentiment. The mood turned cautious after US President Donald Trump imposed 30 percent tariffs on the EU and Mexico, reigniting fears of a trade war. The Gift Nifty was trading at 25,180, down 0.04 percent at about 7:55 am.

In the previous session, Dalal Street fell prey to significant selling pressure through the Friday, July 11 session, as investors rushed to book profits amid concerns of a lacklustre earnings season, following IT giant Tata Consultancy Services' weak quarterly show and disappointing commentary.

On Friday, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) were net sellers to the tune of Rs 5,104 crore worth of shares in Indian equities, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) net bought Rs 3,558 crore worth of shares.

On the weekly chart, the index closed with a negative value, indicating a bearish structure and suggesting a likelihood of continued correction. Structurally, market breadth remains weak, with little conviction from bulls. The former support zone at 25,300 has now turned into resistance, and a follow-through breakdown below today’s low of 25,129 could further deteriorate the technical setup. Conversely, only a sustained move above 25,350 would attract buyers, marking this zone as a key resistance for any potential recovery.

"On the technical front, a swing high has been established around 57,370—a level that has repeatedly witnessed selling interest, thereby emerging as a crucial resistance zone. For any meaningful bullish reversal to unfold, a confirmed close above this resistance zone of 56,700 is essential; until then, the upside appears restricted. Currently, the price is consolidating between its 10-day and 20-day exponential moving averages (DEMA), indicating near-term indecision and a lack of directional clarity. A breakdown below the day’s low (56,607.75) could act as a trigger for further weakness on the charts," says Dhupesh Dhameja of SAMCO Securities.

Despite the sharp decline in the index, India VIX remained relatively subdued, edging up by just 1.24 percent to settle at 11.81, still well below the psychological threshold of 15. This suggests that while selling pressure persists, the sense of panic among market participants seems to be lacking. The low volatility environment also reflects indecision, favouring a gradual downside move rather than erratic swings.

The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has declined further to 0.55 from 0.69, highlighting a rise in call writing and growing bearish sentiment. Meanwhile, Max Pain has slightly shifted to 25,250, suggesting the expiry point where the most options may expire worthless, anchoring the index in its current trading band, Dhameja added.