For the calendar year, Nifty still has some room left on the upside, and once we get some participation from the NIFTY BANK index then 17000 could be seen in Nifty. With respect to the BSE SENSEX index, 57,000 could be seen, Mehul Kothari, AVP – Technical Research at AnandRathi said in an interview with Moneycontrol’s Kshitij Anand. Edited excerpts:
Q) A historical week for Indian markets. Nifty50 climbed above 16500 while Sensex touched 55K peak in the week gone by. What led to the price action? Was it short covering after the breakout which led the move?
A) It was an action-packed week on the D–Street where the traders don’t have much to celebrate despite the benchmarks reaching life high.
The index NIFTY maintained its upward trajectory to reach the milestone of 16500 but that happened with the help of a handful of stock. The buying was extremely concentrated to the like of IT stocks.
It was not a short-covering rally but indeed it seemed to be fresh buying in NIFTY FUT as the open interest kept on inching higher with rise in price.
Q) What are your expectations from Nifty and Sensex for the rest of 2021? What are your targets for Sensex and Nifty? Time to become cautious or ride the momentum?
A) In our previous interactions we have been mentioning the overall target of 16400 on an immediate basis for the NIFTY index and then a corrective move likely.
In line with that, the milestone has been reached. We also expected a corrective move but that happened in the individual stocks.
Now, for the calendar year, NIFTY still has some room left on the upside. Once we get some participation from the NIFTY BANK index then 17000 could be seen in Nifty. With respect to the BSE SENSEX index, 57,000 could be seen.
From here on, one needs to be a bit vigilant while riding on to the momentum since it will be difficult to gauge the sectors which can participate on the upside.
Q) Small & midcap came under pressure because of BSE circular. But, do you think this space could underperform amid the movement of money towards largecaps or big ticket IPOs?
A) Of course the broader markets have to suffer if the buying gets diverted to heavyweights. That has been a normal trend of the market.
Now going ahead, once the momentum in NIFTY turns sideways to positive then there could be fresh buying seen in the Mid and SmallCap stocks.
However, we reiterate our view that NIFTY MIDCAP100 index is struggling near rising trend line on the larger time frame and 161.8% retracement level.
The impact of the same was seen in the past few sessions and this would continue after some relief in the coming months unless the index clear 29000 mark.
Q) Well it looks like Indian markets are moving on steroids. Any clues which investors/traders should track that will make this markets a sell-on-rise market?
A) If we look at a bigger picture then we are very much a buy-on-dips market. However, the dips could be considerable and difficult to project at this point in time.
But, the fact still remains that there are certain cues that suggest that traders need to be extra careful with the short term.
Trading of VIX near years of support, heavy participation by retail in Stock Futures, too many IPOs lined up, and over-optimism in the street. Such kind of hints tends to bring shake offs in the markets and one need to be prepared for the same.
Q) Which sectors are looking attractive and why? Any particular stocks which one can look at?
A) There is a breakout in Nifty Bank for the nth time and that would be under our radar despite its failures in the past instance.
A sustainable move above 36300 could bring some strength in the index which can propel it towards a life high. Stocks like HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, etc. might lead the index from here on.
Q) Top 3-5 stocks that one should look at buying for the next 3-4 weeks?
A) Here is a list of top trading ideas:
Bharti Airtel: Buy| LTP: Rs 637| Stop Loss: Rs 595| Target: Rs 695| Upside: 9%
The stock has failed several times after confirming a breakout but this time it has managed to break above its lifetime high of 623 on a closing basis.
We feel that there could be a FOMO (Fear of missing out) among traders' minds post this breakout confirmation and that could lead to a fresh upside.
Thus, traders are advised to buy the stock near 630 135 with a stop loss of 595 for the upside potential target of 695 in the coming 3–4 weeks.
DLF: Buy| LTP: Rs 332| Stop Loss: Rs 300| Target: Rs 375| Upside: 12%
Previously we covered DLF near 300 mark and the target of the same was achieved. Now DLF has confirmed a multi-year breakout which cannot be ignored. The theoretical price target for the pattern comes around 450.