Nifty delivered 0.2% average returns during Budget day in last 15 years, says this analyst

Nifty performance on Budget Day.

• Nifty 50 averages just 0.2% gain on Budget day over past 15 years.
• Pre-Budget phase sees cautious trading and marginally negative returns.
• Post-Budget period shows stronger returns as markets focus on policy clarity.

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Union Budget has generated limited returns for equity markets over the past decade and a half, with the benchmark Nifty 50 delivering an average gain of just about 0.2 percent on the much-awaited day, said an analyst.

Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research at SAMCO Securities, said Budget sessions tend to attract outsized attention, but historical data shows that market moves on the day of the Budget are often muted and inconsistent.

Based on data since 2010, Sheth noted that the average Budget day movement stands at 0.19 percent for the Nifty 50 and 0.42 percent for the Nifty Bank. The wide variation in outcomes across years suggests that market reactions are driven more by positioning and expectations than by policy announcements alone, he said.

The period leading up to the Budget typically sees a cautious tone, with investors trimming risk amid uncertainty. On average, backward returns during the pre-Budget phase have been marginally negative, with the Nifty declining 0.46 percent and the Nifty Bank slipping 0.03 percent, indicating profit-booking ahead of the event.

In contrast, the post-Budget phase has shown relatively stronger performance. Forward returns after the Budget have averaged 1.35 percent for the Nifty and 1.69 percent for the Nifty Bank, as markets shift focus to policy clarity, liquidity conditions, earnings outlook and growth visibility.

SAMCO Securities said that on February 26, 2010, the Budget day gain was 1.2 percent, while backward returns stood at 1.6 percent and forward returns at 4.1 percent. Since the Budget presentation was moved to February 1 in 2017, the average Budget day change has been around 1.8 percent, with backward returns of 1.3 percent and forward returns of 0.7 percent.

In Union Budget in 2025, the Nifty slipped 0.11 percent on the day, even as backward returns were positive at 2.8 percent and forward returns turned negative at 0.43 percent.

"The Budget day itself is rarely the opportunity," Sheth said. "Historically, patience has paid off. Volatility ahead of the Budget often creates positioning opportunities, while the period after the Budget has delivered more consistent returns."

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