Morgan Stanley sees Sensex at 93,000 by December 2025 in base case

Morgan Stanley is overweight on sectors like financials, consumer discretionary, industrials, and technology while underweighting all other sectors.

Morgan Stanley has projected a 14 percent upside for the BSE Sensex, expecting it to reach 93,000 by December 2025 in its base case. A bullish scenario could push the Sensex to 1,05,000, while a bearish outlook places it at 70,000.

Morgan Stanley has reiterated its bullish stance on India, predicting it will rank among the best-performing emerging markets in 2025. Strong earnings, macroeconomic stability, and robust domestic flows make it hard to argue against India's investment case, the brokerage said in its latest strategy report.

While Indian benchmarks—the Sensex and Nifty—have corrected by 6 percent from their all-time highs following a significant FII selloff in October, Morgan Stanley remains confident, asserting that 'India is still the market to beat.' The long-term narrative continues to strengthen, supported by steady government policy actions.

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In the previous session, the Nifty 50 rose by 241 points, or 1 percent, to 24,708, while the Sensex climbed 810 points, or 1 percent, to close at 81,766.

The upside does come with risks. Morgan Stanley also noted that risks to its optimistic outlook largely stem from external factors. Potential global growth concerns, a surge in IPO activity, and near-term growth challenges could weigh on India's growth trajectory.

Looking ahead, the brokerage anticipates 2025 will be a stock pickers’ market, contrasting the macro-driven trends seen since the COVID-19 pandemic. It prefers cyclicals over defensives and small and mid-caps (SMIDs) over large-caps.

Also Read | What will happen to Sensex, Nifty if RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das doesn't cut repo rate today?

Morgan Stanley is overweight on sectors like financials, consumer discretionary, industrials, and technology while underweighting all other sectors.

Meanwhile, all eyes are on the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy decision due today. Investors are anticipating policy easing, with expectations of a reduction in the cash reserve ratio (CRR) from 4.5 percent to 4 percent, which could bolster liquidity and support economic growth.

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