Indian equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty are set to open sharply lower on Monday, with Gift Nifty futures trading around 25,170 -- down roughly 210 points, or about 0.8 percent, from its last close. The negative indication follows a risk-off wave across global markets after escalating US-Israel strikes on Iran pushed crude oil prices sharply higher and triggered a flight to safe-haven assets.
Indian equities had already closed weak on Friday, with the Sensex falling 961 points and the Nifty declining 1.25 percent after late-session selling. Monday's GIFT Nifty indicates a further gap-down open.
Asian markets opened broadly lower today. The Nikkei 225 was down about 1.5 percent, Hang Seng slipped over 2 percent, and broader Asia-Pacific indices lost more than 1 percent. US equity-index futures were also trading in the red, while Brent crude surged to multi-month highs, briefly spiking above $82 a barrel before paring gains.
Brent crude rose as much as 7-13 percent at one stage as markets grappled with the effective disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz -- a critical energy chokepoint through which nearly 20 percent of global oil supply and over 40 percent of India’s crude imports transit.
Analysts said trading may shift from earnings-driven to oil-driven in the near term. “Markets are likely to move from earnings-driven to oil-driven trading in the near term as crude remains the key macro variable for Indian equities under the current escalation scenario,” analysts at JM Financial said. They added that higher crude raises inflation risks, pushes up bond yields and compresses equity multiples.
Rajeev Sharan of Brickwork Ratings said any sustained rise in Brent would quickly feed into higher fuel costs, broader inflation and a wider current account deficit for India, complicating the RBI’s disinflation path.
The Nifty is now down 3.7 percent year-to-date, though it remains up nearly 14 percent over the past year. Foreign portfolio investors offloaded shares worth Rs 7,500 crore on Friday, while domestic institutional investors bought Rs 12,300 crore, offering some cushion.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said markets are poised to open cautiously as the confrontation reverberates across the broader Middle East. “For investors, the concern is less about immediate shortages and more about duration risk -- how long elevated freight, insurance and energy costs persist,” he said, adding that the geopolitical overhang is likely to keep markets range-bound with a modest downside bias until clarity emerges.
Rising crude prices could weigh on oil marketing companies, aviation, paints, tyres and chemical manufacturers due to higher input and freight costs. Energy-intensive and import-dependent sectors may face margin pressure if oil sustains at elevated levels. Conversely, upstream oil explorers such as ONGC and Oil India may benefit from stronger realisations if crude remains firm.
Technically, the Nifty faces immediate support in the 25,100-25,000 zone. A decisive break below 25,000 could intensify selling pressure towards 24,800-24,600, analysts said. On the upside, 25,350-25,500 now acts as a resistance band.
Bank Nifty has slipped below its 20-day EMA near 60,640, with immediate support placed in the 60,300-60,000 zone. A sustained break below that range could extend weakness towards 59,600-59,200, while 60,800-61,000 remains the near-term resistance band.
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