Dharmesh Shah of ICICI Securities expects Nifty to head towards 24,200 in April as it is an 80% retracement of the last leg of decline (24,857-21,965).
However, the move towards 24,200 would not be in a linear manner as bouts of volatility in the backdrop of looming US tariff announcement would prevail wherein, according to him.
The Vice President at ICICI Securities remains positive and advises buying Hindustan Aeronautics, Tata Steel, and PFC for April.
Technically, do you believe the Nifty is looking quite strong and could be heading toward the 24,000–24,500 zone in April?
The Nifty has staged the strongest up move that has helped the index to log a resolute breakout from the six-month falling trendline. Key point to highlight is that, the recent up move is backed by the faster pace of retracement as it entirely retraced past 19 sessions decline in just 14 sessions, indicating structural turnaround that makes us reiterate our positive stance and expect Nifty to head towards 24,200 in April as it is 80% retracement of last leg of decline (24,857-21,965).
However, mthe ove towards 24,200 would not be in a linear manner as bouts of volatility in the backdrop of looming US tariff announcement would prevail. Hence, buying on dips would be the prudent strategy to adopt as strong support is placed in the 23,000-22,800 range.
Are the private banks looking strong on the charts? If so, do you think the Bank Nifty will hit 53,000 soon?
The private banking space has been one of the leaders of the current pullback that witnessed a faster pace of retracement by retracing a five-week decline in just a single week, indicating a revival in upward momentum. This structural improvement helped Bank Nifty to resolve out of double bottom pattern formed above 100-week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) after five months decline, indicating trend reversal that bodes well for extension of ongoing up move towards 53,500 as it is 80% retracement of past 5 months decline (54,467-47,702) coincided with December 2024 high of 53,888.
What are your top three picks for April and why?
We expect the index to trade with a positive bias amid global volatility, wherein stock-specific action would continue. Looking at the across-sector participation, we remain positive on the following stocks:
One can buy in the range of Rs 4,160-4,280 for the target of Rs 4,750 with a stop-loss of Rs 3,948. The stock staged a strong rebound from the 100-week EMA that helped the price to resolve above eight months falling trendline. The highlighting point is that the current up move is backed by the rising volume, suggesting larger participation in the direction of the trend.
One can buy in the range of Rs 153-159 for a target of Rs 176 with a stop-loss of Rs 146. A breakout from nine months falling channel signifies the conclusion of corrective bias, in turn suggesting resumption of uptrend. Further, cooling off in the US Dollar index would provide a cushion for the metal sector.
One can buy PFC in the range of Rs 408-420 for a target of Rs 470 with a stop-loss of Rs 384. After correcting 32% from December 2024 high to the low in February 2025, the stock observed a base formation in the vicinity of 100-week EMA, despite recent volatility. The stock has now come out of the consolidation and witnessed a higher high-low formation, indicating the conclusion of the corrective bias, which augurs well for the next leg of the up-move.
Do you expect Nifty Pharma to hit a record high in April?
The Nifty pharma index has been consolidating after correcting 18% over the past six months. In the backdrop of the looming US tariff announcement, we remain cautiously optimistic on the pharma space and resort to a stock-specific approach. In the pharma space, we prefer companies with relatively lower US exposure, such as Cipla and Ajanta Pharma. Meanwhile, in the CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) space, we prefer players like Piramal Pharma, Syngene International and Laurus Labs, which is forming a strong base in the vicinity of long-term moving averages.
Do you see the possibility of a strong rebound in the realty space based on the weekly charts?
The Realty index has been forming a base around 100-week EMA after 30% correction seen over the past eight months. The current oversold condition warrants a gradual recovery in the space wherein stock specific action would be in focus. Further, RBI’s rate cut would boost the sentiment for the sector and provide impetus for an extended up move. On the stock front we remain positive on DLF and Godrej Properties.
Does Glenmark look strong on the charts?
The monthly candlestick pattern of the Glenmark Pharma chart resembles a bullish engulfing pattern. The formation of the engulfing pattern after a six-month corrective phase indicates a rejuvenated uptrend that augurs well for further extension of the ongoing up move in the coming weeks toward Rs 1,700 while key support is placed at Rs 1,418.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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