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Budget 2021

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August 31, 2020 / 10:55 PM IST

India GDP Data HIGHLIGHTS | Q1FY21 GDP at -23.9%, worst contraction on record

India GDP Data Live Updates: The National Statistical Office (NSO) has put out the figures Q1FY21. The Q1FY21 GDP is at -23.9%

India GDP Data LIVE Updates: The National Statistical Office (NSO) has put out the figures Q1FY21. The Q1FY21 GDP is  at -23.9%. This data reveals this worst contraction on record.

Catch the highlights here:
  • August 31, 2020 / 10:25 PM IST

    India GDP LIVE | Suvodeep Rakshit, Vice President & Senior Economist at Kotak Institutional Equities on NOS data 

    “Real GDP growth at (-)23.9% in 1QFY21 was much lower than what markets were expecting. The print indicates that the trough in the economy was much lower than expected and the pickup will likely be more elongated. Production side was pulled down by deep contraction in manufacturing, construction, and trade, hotel, transport sectors while the expenditure side was clearly pushed lower by heavy contraction both in consumption and investment. Going forward, given the gradual improvement in activity indicators (remaining well below pre-Covid levels) the growth recovery will be gradual and contracting for all quarters in FY2021. Further, growth recovery will also be hinged to the curb of the Covid spread and removal of even localized lockdowns. The choice for the government will be on whether the consumption or the investment side needs to be pushed. Given the limited fiscal space and the need to stimulate a more durable growth, the growth recovery will be gradual and is likely to continue into 1HFY22.”

  • August 31, 2020 / 10:05 PM IST

    India GDP LIVE | Nish Bhatt, Founder and CEO of Millwood Kane International 
    “The growth rate for April to June quarter was expected to be bad but it turned out worse, a degrowth by 23.9% is worse than the most bearish estimate. Positive agricultural output is the only positive element in the GDP print. As the April-June quarter saw the maximum period of the national lockdown the degrowth was severe, going forward as the government re-opens the economy in phases, government spending, and festive season spending is expected to help the growth rate to be in the positive territory going forward. While the RBI has done its part to help boost consumption and economy, a further rate cut may help boost credit offtake. The government may still have some more fire-power with further stimulus measures for specific sectors. Good monsoon, high agri output will help with a pickup in rural consumption. Government spending, reforms, and more measures to boost consumption is required to bring back growth on track..

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  • August 31, 2020 / 09:13 PM IST

    India GDP LIVE | Government says contraction along expected lines
    Government source told Moneycontrol that it is important to keep in mind that the contraction was expected, given that it took place during a quarter when the country was in complete lockdown due to COVID-19. More importantly, they said, India is expected to bounce back.

  • August 31, 2020 / 08:28 PM IST

    India GDP LIVE | Subhash Chandra Garg says we are not out of the woods yet 

    Former Finance Secretary of India SC Garg took to Twitter to share his views on the data released by NSO.

    "GDP contraction at 24% in quarter I 2020-21 confirms my assessment of it contracting by 25%. We are not out of woods still. Indicators of economic performance of July and August 2020 suggest we might have contraction of about 12-15% in Q2," he said. 

  • August 31, 2020 / 08:18 PM IST

    India GDP LIVE | Contraction in GDP calls for rethinking budget estimates and projections 
    India will be officially in recession if GDP contracts in the current quarter —July-September — too, which most experts reckon would take place. The contraction in GDP  would now call for major revisions in budget estimates. 

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  • August 31, 2020 / 08:04 PM IST

    India GDP LIVE | Real Estate experts say contraction is deep, worse was expected 
    The real estate sector has been also felt the heat with numbers falling by 5.3 percent in Q1 FY21 from 6 percent growth in the same period last fiscal, the Central Statistics Office data showed. The government had imposed a nationwide lockdown from March 25 to curb the spread of COVID-19 infections, which adversely affected all sectors of the economy, while the contraction was deep, worse was expected real estate experts say. 

  • August 31, 2020 / 07:47 PM IST

    India GDP LIVE | Sonal Varma weighs in on data, says we fiscal side support extremely necessary right now
    The lockdown in India has been the most stringent. Priority must be to support industries struggling to recover. The government could look to share some wage cost of these companies, more time-bound consumption vouchers would help. Urban employment guarantee scheme can be looked at, fiscal side support extremely necessary right now and the priority has to be towards more fiscal support. RBIs key role is to keep long term interest rates under check. We are looking at a significant decline in GDP numbers this year. 

  • August 31, 2020 / 07:42 PM IST

    India GDP Live | Sudipto Mundle weighs in on GDP data, says entire massive shortfall in revenue has been offset
    There has been no deviation from budgeted expenses. The Entire massive shortfall in revenue has been offset. Doing too much liquidity infusion may lead to higher inflation. There is a need to put more money to boost private expenditure. The government is not prepared to think about basic income support. Rural roads projects will out money into hands of the people. Frontline action on pandemic must be taken by the states, cannot centralize decision making in responding to the pandemic. 

  • August 31, 2020 / 07:39 PM IST

    India GDP LIVE | Pronob Sen weighs in on data, says public investment must go up to 2019 levels
    Certainly seeing a recovery, but in Q1 the country has lost 13 lakh crores in income. Expect a positive footprint in Q4 but that will be due to base effect. You will see an increase in consumption in the festive season but a larger decline compared to last year. Public investment must go up to at least last year's levels. The government's ability to step up consumption is limited, it can actually increase the cash payable into Jan Dhan accounts substantially. If the money comes just before festive season it would be spent immediately. 

  • August 31, 2020 / 07:35 PM IST

    India GDP LIVE | Real GDP shrinks  
    The real GDP shrank 22.6 percent in the said quarter, marking the sharpest drop in the country's growth numbers in more than 40 years.

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  • August 31, 2020 / 07:35 PM IST

    India GDP LIVE | Real GDP shrinks  
    The real GDP shrank 22.6 percent in the said quarter, marking the sharpest drop in the country's growth numbers in more than 40 years.

  • August 31, 2020 / 07:18 PM IST

    India GDP Live | CEA issues comments on GDP figures 
    Apr-June was a quarter in which the Indian and global economy were in lockdown. We are witnessing a V-shaped recovery as the economy unlocks
    E-way bills at 99.9% vs August last year despite local lockdowns, this will continue. Once the Unlock phase was undertaken, the decline has been progressively lower. The trend is one of a V-shaped recovery. There is still residual uncertainty, will persist till pandemic isn't brought under complete control. 

     

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