How Taliban takeover could impact civil aviation

Representative image (Source: ShutterStock)

News coming in from Afghanistan only gets grim by the day. With India releasing a security advisory, asking all citizens to make arrangements to return from Afghanistan, the security scenario is deteriorating on the ground. India has already evacuated all diplomats from Mazar-e-Sharif - the northern city closer to the Tajik and Uzbek border.

Taliban was in control of the major parts of Afghanistan after a bloody civil war. Kabul fell in September 1996 and the Taliban was in full control until the US campaign started in 2001 after the 9/11 attacks on US soil.

The Taliban and the Indian government do not seen eye to eye, and without any diplomatic presence, when the hijacked Indian Airlines flight IC814 landed in Kandahar, it became even more difficult to sort out the mess.

Since 2001, ties between India and Afghanistan have grown from strength to strength. While, at the government level, it has been about aid and infrastructure development, at the people-to-people level, many Afghans have relied on New Delhi for medical needs.

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There is a teeming mini-Afghanistan in New Delhi, where Afghan food is served. In addition to this, the Afghan cricket team trains in NOIDA. A major part of travel is linked to medical tourism. All of this is possible because of the air connectivity between the two countries, which would come to naught if security issues do not improve.

Pre-COVID air links

The Air Services Agreement (ASA) between India and Afghanistan allows 14 services each week by each side. The Indian side saw Air India and SpiceJet operate to Kabul from New Delhi while the Afghanistan carriers had connected New Delhi with Kabul, Kandahar, Mazar-e-Sharif and Herat.

The operations to Kabul are always fraught with risks, and not all lessors allow their aircraft to operate to Kabul. In 2017, a SpiceJet aircraft was on the ground in Kabul when the Taliban attacked the airport. No passenger or crew was hurt nor the aircraft damaged, but it just shows the risk of operating from Kabul or any other airport in Afghanistan.

While COVID-19 led to the closure of all international services, Afghanistan was one of the first countries with which India signed an air bubble agreement. From the Indian side, Air India operates a couple of flights every month to Afghanistan. In June, the national carrier operated 13 flights, on which 1,214 passengers travelled.

SpiceXpress, the cargo arm of SpiceJet, has been active with flights to Kabul. Data from flight tracking website Flightradar24 shows Hi Fly A340s leased by SpiceXpress operate to Kabul from Delhi at regular intervals.

Overflying the real problem

Most Europe and North America-bound flights from Delhi, the largest airport in the country, fly over Pakistan and Afghanistan. Analysis of flights shows that typically an airliner spends between 30-45 minutes over the Afghan airspace.

When the Taliban was in control of the country the last time around, airspace was open for overflying flights and more so because of the overflying permit-linked money, which was lucrative.

A WSJ report estimated that to be $12 million. The Taliban government never got hold of that money due to UN sanctions.

It is unlikely that an overflying flight may be harmed, but incidents in the recent past -- the MH17 shootdown in flight over Ukraine and Ukranian Airlines flight PS752 in Iran -- are examples of what could go wrong in states where tensions are escalating. MH17 was flying at FL330 or 33,000 feet.

Airlines also evaluate the nearest alternative airports for landing in case of an emergency. A hostile nation would certainly not be on the priority list, unless it is a May Day call. Even then, one is not sure of the availability of ground services and ways to repair and rectify the aircraft and retrieve the passengers.

In late 2018, a Norwegian B737 MAX had to make an emergency landing in Iran and the aircraft was on ground for 10 weeks as a replacement engine couldn't be shipped due to the sanctions on Iran.

Are there any alternatives?
A quick look at the map and one knows how complex the situation could get. One has to either fly over Afghanistan or Iran. Airlines were avoiding Iran for multiple reasons in the recent past.

To avoid both means taking a longer route via the Persian Gulf, which will cost more in terms of fuel and time and making the turnarounds for widebody aircraft complex.

Who will it impact?

While Air India is the largest Indian carrier by ASKs (Available Seat Kilometres), both Vistara and IndiGo have ambitious international plans on the other side of COVID-19. IndiGo is inducting the A321XLRs in the next couple of years and already has the A321neos in its fleet.

The airline had already faced headwinds while flying to Turkey, both literally and figuratively, as it had to leave luggage behind for some of the travellers a couple of times in winter months.

It was also forced to operate the flight with a stop at Doha during the Pakistani air space closure. Any more deviation could mean a severe impact on the 7-8 hour radius, which the airline talks about for international flights.

How the world reacts to an advancing Taliban will be keenly watched but in an already difficult environment, airlines will be watching it keenly as well.