Revised system for GDP estimate to be in place by early 2026

GDP base revision

The government has kicked off the process of GDP revision and India is likely to get the estimate for FY26 under the new system by the next one-and-a-half years, sources informed Moneycontrol.

“It will take us another one and a half years, and we will have a new GDP estimate beginning 2026,” a person aware of the development said, highlighting that FY26 numbers are likely to be available with a new base.

A new base year and methodology of calculation implies that India will be able to track changes in the economy more closely, including new industries like renewable energy and services like the gig economy.

The country follows FY12 as the base year for its GDP statistics. The GDP estimates follow five revisions, with the final numbers released after a hiatus of two years from the first one.

The first advance estimate of the GDP is released in January of the preceding year, with eight to nine months of data available. The second release is scheduled for February. The provisional estimates are released in May, with the first and second revised estimates released in subsequent years.

“We are targeting a January-February 2026 release for FY26 data,” the person noted.

Last week, the government announced the formation of the Advisory Committee on National Accounts Statistics (ACNAS), the body responsible for suggesting GDP revisions. Moneycontrol had reported that the 26-member panel will be headed by Bishwanath Goldar, former professor at the Institute of Economic Growth.

The committee comprises representatives from the commerce and agriculture ministries, the Reserve Bank of India, and other fields, as well as academics like Chetan Ghate and Mausumi Das.

The committee is expected "to advise on the methodology for compilation and presentation of National Accounts Statistics for the purpose of economic analysis and policy, including methodology for seasonal adjustment of quarterly national accounts and on the promotion of research in the field of National Accounts Statistics".

The earlier ACNAS had recommended that 2020-21 be taken as the base year, but the plan was junked owing to Covid-led disruptions.

Changes in tow
At present, India does not have seasonal adjustment calculations for GDP or other indicators like consumer inflation or industrial production.

The committee is expected to suggest a new methodology based on GDP calculations. The government has been conducting surveys, which will help inform decisions for GDP revision.

It recently launched the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises and Household Consumption Expenditure Survey.

Moneycontrol had also reported that the government is likely to take a call on GDP revision by the end of the year.

The period of India’s GDP revision will also correspond with the System of National Accounts 2025 parameters set by the United Nations, which are then implemented across countries.

India had earlier this year started its term as a member of the UN Statistical Commission, the body responsible for creating these parameters.

The government has plans to align base years of other indicators like index of industrial production, wholesale price index and consumer price index to GDP. “We are looking at how to align the base year across releases,” another person said.

It is conducting a market survey to ready the base for a CPI revision, which has also been due for revision since 2017-18. The current CPI base is 2012.