New Zealand can absorb $3.3 billion of India’s US tariff-hit exports

The core of this potential lies in product categories where India already has demonstrated export strength to the US, while New Zealand continues to source most of its demand from other suppliers.

New Zealand can readily absorb $3.3 billion worth of Indian exports currently facing tariff pressure in the United States, offering Indian manufacturers a viable alternative market as trade frictions rise, a Moneycontrol analysis of trade data shows.

By mapping US imports from India against New Zealand’s “residual” import demand—imports sourced from the rest of the world excluding India—the analysis identifies an overlap of nearly $12.2 billion across a broad set of products. Of this, around $3.3 billion represents a near-term, realistic opportunity for Indian exporters.

Where the opportunity lies

The core of this potential lies in product categories where India already has demonstrated export strength to the US, while New Zealand continues to source most of its demand from other suppliers. In many such lines, India’s exports to the US are substantial, yet its presence in New Zealand remains negligible despite meaningful import demand.

Processed foods and beverages account for a large share of the opportunity. India exports sizable volumes of sugar confectionery, sweet biscuits, ready-to-eat and ready-to-cook foods to the US, while New Zealand imports tens of millions of dollars’ worth of the same products from non-Indian suppliers.

A similar pattern emerges in sauces and condiments—including tomato ketchup and mixed sauces—as well as protein concentrates and a wide range of packaged food preparations.

Consumer goods: cosmetics and home care

Another major cluster is cosmetics, toiletries and home-care products. India already exports perfumes and toilet waters, cosmetic preparations, hair and oral care products, and perfuming deodorisers to the US in significant volumes. At the same time, New Zealand’s import demand in these categories remains largely met by other countries, leaving ample headroom for Indian firms.

Plastics and packaging materials also stand out, with New Zealand continuing to import substantial quantities from non-Indian partners despite India’s strong global export base in these products.

Textiles, footwear and home furnishings

Textiles, garments and footwear form another prominent segment of the overlap. India exports large volumes of T-shirts and knitwear, women’s dresses, innerwear, and home textiles such as bed linen, blankets and kitchen linen to the US. New Zealand’s remaining import demand for many of these lines—particularly garments, home textiles and footwear—is sizeable.

Industrial and high-value goods

On the industrial side, chemicals, plastics, machinery and medical devices underpin a significant portion of the $3.3-billion opportunity. There is strong overlap in pumps, filtration systems, filling and packaging machinery, and transmission components.

New Zealand’s unmet demand for medical and surgical instruments, orthopaedic appliances, and diagnostic and imaging equipment adds a higher-value, skill-intensive dimension to the trade diversion potential.

Analysis suggests that New Zealand offers India not just marginal diversification, but a credible absorption market for exports displaced or pressured by US tariffs.