Economic Survey 2025-26: What to expect

The Economic Survey 2025–26 is expected to present an assessment of India’s growth trajectory

• Economic Survey to be tabled on Jan 29, ahead of Union Budget on Feb 1
• Survey may revise GDP growth outlook above last year's 6.3–6.8 percent band
• Focus areas include exports, private investment, AI impact, and green transition

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Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will table the Economic Survey in both Houses of Parliament on January 29, 2026, at 11 a.m., setting the macroeconomic and policy backdrop for the Union Budget to be presented on February 1.

The Economic Survey 2025–26 is expected to present an assessment of India’s growth trajectory, labour market trends and investment outlook at a time when the economy has shown resilience amid global uncertainty. The document is likely to build on last year’s narrative of steady expansion, while updating the government’s short-term gross domestic product (GDP) outlook in light of stronger-than-expected momentum through 2025.

2026–27 outlook emphasis

The Survey is expected to set out its outlook on growth and employment, with a sharper focus on productivity gains, private capital expenditure and the role of digital technologies – particularly artificial intelligence – in reshaping labour markets and skill requirements.

Last year’s Economic Survey (2024–25) made the case for medium-term structural reforms and projected real GDP growth for FY2025–26 in the range of 6.3 percent to 6.8 percent. The upcoming Survey is expected to review actual economic outturns since then and explain any recalibration of the near-term growth assessment.

2025 signals: Upside to growth

Through 2025, Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran repeatedly pointed to the possibility of a stronger growth outcome than earlier estimates, particularly after robust quarterly GDP prints in the second quarter of the fiscal. He indicated that FY2025–26 growth could be “north of 7 percent” and flagged the prospect of India approaching the USD four-trillion economy milestone, citing sustained momentum in manufacturing and services.

Expected focus areas

Growth and the numbers: The Survey is expected to lead with a data-driven assessment comparing last year’s projection band of 6.3–6.8 percent with the latest growth indicators. While maintaining a cautious tone, it may reflect an upward bias to the outlook, taking into account recent momentum.

Exports amid geopolitical risks: Exports are likely to feature as a key area of concern amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty, supply-chain disruptions and uneven global demand. Last year’s Survey noted that India’s exports of goods and services remained resilient despite global headwinds, but warned that trade is sensitive to conflicts, protectionism and volatility in energy and freight costs. The new Survey is expected to revisit these risks, assess pressures on merchandise exports and highlight the role of services exports, market diversification and free trade agreements in cushioning external shocks.

Investment and supply-side push: Private capital expenditure and foreign direct investment may be highlighted as central drivers of expansion, alongside policy prescriptions to sustain the investment cycle and ease bottlenecks.

Labour, technology and AI: Building on last year’s special essay on artificial intelligence and employment, the Survey is expected to deepen its analysis of how automation and generative AI are altering labour demand, productivity and skill formation.

Climate and green transition: The document may revisit social indicators and green investment priorities to present a balanced view of growth.

Why this matters

For markets and ratings agencies, the Economic Survey serves as a comprehensive stock-taking exercise that frames the Union Budget. Any upward shift in the official growth narrative – including an acknowledgement that growth may exceed the earlier 6.8 percent ceiling – will shape expectations around fiscal arithmetic, policy priorities and the broader economic outlook.