NTPC is expected to post a steady performance for Q2FY26 on October 30, with a moderate year-on-year (YoY) growth in revenue and profit, despite weaker generation trends.
According to a Moneycontrol poll of six brokerages, the power major’s revenue is projected to rise about 5 percent YoY to Rs 42,345.82 crore, while net profit is likely to increase 5.1 percent to Rs 4,615.72 crore. Operating profitability is seen improving, with EBITDA (Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) margins expanding to 26.7 percent from 25.5 percent a year ago.
The most optimistic of brokerages is JM Financial, which expects net profit to increase to Rs 5,248 crore, while the most pessimistic is Kotak Institutional Equities, whose projection is at Rs 4,279 crore.
What will drive earnings
Weak demand and power generation
A softer summer and the early onset of the monsoon led to muted electricity demand across the country, weighing on coal-based generation volumes. Kotak Institutional Equities expects NTPC’s generation to decline by around 9–12 percent YoY in Q2FY26, citing modest demand conditions.
JM Financial projects a six percent YoY fall in generation, which could lead to a 4 percent revenue decline to Rs 46,500 crore. Antique notes that despite incremental capacity additions, NTPC’s thermal plant load factor (PLF) fell by about 500 basis points YoY, reflecting weaker utilisation trends. While the generation environment remains subdued, Elara Capital and Antique highlight that tariff recovery and incremental capacity could help stabilise revenue performance. NTPC’s regulated business model continues to support earnings stability, cushioning the near-term impact of weak demand and lower generation.
High interest costs
Rising borrowing costs remain a headwind for profitability. Kotak expects only modest growth in profit after tax (PAT) due to the absence of prior-period sales that had supported the base quarter, combined with weaker generation levels. Axis Securities had, in previous quarters, noted that higher interest expenses and lower other income would continue to pressure bottom line. The trend appears consistent in Q2FY26, with steady operating performance unlikely to fully offset higher finance costs, leading to muted profit growth despite stable EBITDA margins.
Capacity expansion
The company added about 1 GW (gigawatt) of capacity in Q2FY26, including 660 megawatts from Unit II of the Khurja plant and the remainder from renewable projects. This follows the addition of 1.32 GW thermal capacity in Q1FY26 from the North Karanpura and Barh plants. According to Elara Capital, NTPC currently has about 31 gigawatts of projects under construction, comprising 15.6 gigawatts of thermal, 2.1 gigawatts of hydro, and 13.3 gigawatts of renewables.
Regulated equity growth
Despite short-term pressure from subdued demand and rising costs, NTPC’s regulated equity base continues to provide earnings visibility and stability. Elara estimates regulated equity at Rs 92,300 crore on a standalone basis and Rs 1.114 lakh crore on a consolidated basis, which is expected to rise to Rs 1.14 lakh crore, following the commissioning of the recent thermal capacity.
What analysts will be watching
Analysts are expected to monitor the pace of renewable capacity ramp-up, progress on thermal project commissioning, coal supply conditions, and PLF trends closely. The company’s commentary on demand outlook and tariff trajectory will also be key indicators for assessing near-term performance and longer-term earnings momentum.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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