Citrini flags contract cancellations at TCS, Infosys, Wipro as AI coding costs collapse

markets

India's three IT major TCS, Infosys and Wipro are expected to see contract cancellations accelerate through 2027 as artificial intelligence tools increasingly replace outsourced human coding, according to a scenario outlined by Citrini Research in its report The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis: A Thought Exercise in Financial History, from the Future.

The report states that India’s IT services sector exports over $200 billion annually and is the single largest contributor to the country’s current account surplus, offsetting its persistent goods trade deficit. It says the sector’s model is built on the cost advantage of Indian developers compared with their American counterparts.

However, the marginal cost of an AI coding agent has collapsed to what the report describes as essentially the cost of electricity. In the scenario presented, companies increasingly deploy AI-driven coding tools in place of outsourced development teams, leading to rising contract cancellations for major Indian IT firms.

Citrini Research describes India as the inverse of economies that benefit directly from AI infrastructure expansion. While countries tied to AI infrastructure spending outperform, India faces pressure because of its dependence on exporting human-intensive IT services.

As services exports weaken in the scenario, the report says the rupee falls 18 percent against the dollar within four months. By the first quarter of 2028, the International Monetary Fund begins what it terms “preliminary discussions” with New Delhi.

The report links the strain on India’s external accounts to the erosion of demand for traditional IT outsourcing as AI capabilities improve and adoption accelerates, arguing that machine intelligence is becoming a cheaper substitute for human developers.