Jet Airways likely to post loss at Rs 280 cr in Q4

Jet Airways is expected to post consolidated loss of Rs 280 crore for the fourth quarter of FY12 as against reported loss of Rs 188 crore and adjusted net loss of Rs 309 crore in a year ago period according to CNBC-TV18 poll.

Reported loss may be lower during the quarter due to one time gain of aircraft sale/leaseback (expected) and reversal of MTM loss.

Revenues are seen going up by 28% over a year ago period to Rs 4,680 crore in the January-March quarter.

EBITDA is likely to increase 26% year-on-year to Rs 400 crore, but EBITDAR is seen falling at Rs 245 crore from Rs 316 crore during the same period.

EBITDAR margin is expected to decline at 5% for the January-March quarter versus 9% in the corresponding quarter of last fiscal.

Expectations

- Expect sequential improvement in EBITDA despite a lean season for the aviation sector this quarter

- Net losses will continue but operational internals to see minor improvement

- Load factor healthy at over 76% for carriers like Jet and Spicejet due to major supply cut by Kingfisher (KFA)

- For Jet, domestic load factors expected at 77%, international load factors expected at 82.5% (highest Q4 load factors in last 6 years)

- Revenues to grow due to 12% rise in passenger growth and 5% rise in average yields

- Yields to rise as domestic fares were hiked in February-March by 8% due to flight cancellations by KFA

- March share improved due to cut back in supply by KFA

- Margins to be lower QoQ as improving load factors will be mitigated by weak rupee

The stock has almost doubled from Rs 173 in January 2012 to Rs 327 in May 2012 on regular hopes being built for FDI in aviation.