Power sector results preview for Q4FY13: P Lilladher

Prabhudas Lilladher has come with its March`13 quarterly earning estimates for power sector. According to research firm the situation in the power segment has improved relatively in Q4FY13 since the peak power shortage in the country came down to 7.9% in February, mainly due to improvement in the States, including Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Gujarat and Chhattisgarh. India recorded a peak power deficit - shortage in electricity supply when the demand was at its highest of 7.9% in February 2013 as against 11.4% in January 2013.

Power sector experienced a relatively stable merchant tariff rate, average rate being Rs 3.3/unit (3.5/unit in Q3FY13), which indicates that demand has cooled off. Capacity addition for January 2013 stood at 877MW (Target: 461MWs), flat YoY. During February 2013, capacity addition stood at 2863MW (Target: 1960MWs). Capacity addition YTD stands at 14000MWs.

As far as generation in January 2013 goes, units generated stood at 78.3bn (up 2.3% QoQ and 5.9% YoY growth). However, February saw MoM de-growth of 12.6% at 68.4 bn units and de-growth was 4% YoY. All India PLF stood at 69.9% YTD. The short-term contracts comprised 10.6% of the generation.

	Sales (Rs Mn)			PAT (Rs Mn)
	Q4FY13E	Q4FY12	YoY gr. (%)	Q4FY13E	Q4FY12	YoY gr. (%)
NTPC	183,932	162,639	13.1	26,605	21,880	21.6
NHPC	12,993	14,437	-10	6,470	5,860	10.4
Rel Power	14,522	5,326	172.7	2,298	2,313	-0.7
Reliance Infra	56,417	70,004	-19.4	4,905	3,901	25.7
SJVN	3,176	3,651	-13	1,490	1,197	24.5
PTC India	19,452	14,436	34.7	219	300	-27.0

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