IndiGo's 10% cut translates to only 2.35% flight reduction

IndiGo has never made such a massive pilot hiring

Haven't change anything. just added one sentence. this the proposed intro -

IndiGo’s winter schedule was cut by 10 percent after last week’s operational chaos, but a closer look shows the actual reduction may be far smaller, amounting to only about 2.35 percent of its planned flights. This would likely translate to 1.3-1.7% or Rs 1,200-1,400 crore revenue loss for the airline, as per analyst estimates.

Before the flight chaos hit India’s biggest airline, the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) in its winter schedule allowed IndiGo to conduct 15,014 departures a week till March 28.

The total number of flights curtailed, at least on paper, comes to a little over 24,000 but the actual impact of the cutback would be around 5,600 flights, calculations show.

IndiGo had approval for 2,145 flights a day in the winter schedule but its average domestic daily departures did not exceed 2,000 even once in the past 12 months.

In October and November, the number stood at 1,980 and 1,981 flights, respectively, data shared by DGCA shows.

The winter schedule runs from the last Sunday of October to the last Saturday of March.

The 10 percent cut reduces 2,145 flights a day to 1,931, a loss of just 50 flights, or 2.35 percent of its total domestic departures.

IndiGo had more than 1,800 departures on December 9 and planned to have around 1,900 on December 10, which is close to the curtailed number.

In the first 10 days of December, IndiGo is estimated to have cancelled more than 4,000 flights, including 1,600 on December 5, alone, the worst day for the carrier.

On December 9, the civil aviation ministry slashed the flights by 10 percent after the airline’s operations almost came to a halt following its failure to manage operational resources, including aircraft and pilot crew.

While DGCA has asked IndiGo for a revised schedule, experts say the flights that could be axed by IndiGo are likely to be those flown between midnight and dawn. These typically have low passenger occupancy. There are certain routes and sectors where IndiGo has a monopoly on flying non-stop.

For instance, there is no direct flight between Kolkata and Hyderabad or Chennai-Coimbatore. Only IndiGo flies on these routes. There are 606 such routes, where there are no direct flights. Therefore, any scale-back in flights on such routes will severely impact fares, which the government would be keen to avoid.

“We have lowered our forecasts to add some cost burden due to FDTL (flight duty time limitation), but also flight cancellations and the forex,” a report by HSBC Securities.

“We think IndiGo could cancel around 11,000 flights in total, causing a revenue loss in the range of Rs 1,200-1,400 crore and a net profit loss of around Rs 300-500 crore. Overall, we have lowered our FY26 and FY27 EBITDA forecasts by 4% and 5%, respectively,” the report added.

UBS said in a report that it raised cost estimates for FY26–FY28 to account for additional crew required to comply with FDTL norms and higher operational costs driven by the depreciation of the rupee against the dollar.

“The company’s long-term growth outlook remains robust, supported by international expansion, which provides both a natural hedge and margin stability,” the report, released on December 8, said.