China emerges from trade chaos with record exports and surplus

Chinese firms were able to increase their sales in other markets to compensate for the drop to the US, with exports to the 10 Southeast Asian nations in the Asean group soaring 17% from a year earlier.

China ended the first half of the year with a record trade surplus of about $586 billion after exports to the US began to stabilize, as factories rode out the tariff rollercoaster that upended global commerce.

Exports rose 5.8% in June from a year earlier to $325 billion, exceeding the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Imports rose 1.1% to grow for the first time since February, according to data from the General Administration of Customs on Monday.

Shipments to the US fell 16.1% from a year earlier after slumping by over 34% in May. Chinese firms were able to increase their sales in other markets to compensate for the drop to the US, with exports to the 10 Southeast Asian nations in the Asean group soaring 17% from a year earlier.

“China’s trade resisted pressure and progressed in the first half of the year,” Wang Lingjun, deputy head of the customs agency, said at a press briefing. “But we need to note that unilateralism and protectionism are on the rise globally, and the external environment is becoming more complex, grim and uncertain.”

Diversions of exports away from the US help explain the resilience of Chinese factories, supporting a slowing domestic economy during one of the most turbulent periods in international trade. The question now is how long the recent strength will last, as the Trump administration looks to curb the transshipment of goods to America through other countries.

The US last week announced a raft of new levies on trading partners, declaring those tariffs will take effect on Aug. 1. It also unveiled a 50% tariff on copper imports and signaled more sectoral levies are in the works.

While US tariffs on Chinese goods have been cut back to around 55%, down from as high as 145% in early April, Beijing faces mounting risks from Washington’s evolving trade strategy.

A new agreement with Vietnam, for instance, includes a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports to the US and a steeper 40% duty on goods deemed to be transshipped, targeting a workaround Chinese exporters have long used to evade American tariffs. The move could curb demand for Chinese products headed directly to the US as well as for components used in supply chains across other countries.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expected to meet with his Chinese counterpart in the coming weeks to continue discussions.

What Bloomberg Economics Says...

“The pickup in China’s export growth in June was led by a rebound in shipments to the US after a temporary thaw in the trade war that brought down tariffs. The blip may not last long.”

— Eric Zhu. For full analysis, click here

“It seems the front loading of exports to the US has not ended,” said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. “The strong exports help to partly offset the weak domestic demand and likely keep GDP growth around the government target of 5% in the second quarter.”