Bharat Petroleum may swing with Rs 6,850-cr profit in Q1 as marketing margins widen

In the June 2023 quarter, BPCL net loss stood at Rs 6542.54 crore while revenue stood at Rs 1.38 trillion. Sequentially, it reported net profit of Rs 6,478 crore while revenue was at Rs 1.33 trillion.

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26 Aug, 2025 12:21

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Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd likely to have turned around and report profits for the June quarter compared to a loss reported a year ago, thanks to better marketing margins despite lower refining spreads. The company will report its earnings later on July 26.

According to a Bloomberg poll, BPCL will report a profit of Rs 6,849.80 crore, as projected by seven brokerage firms. Its revenue is expected to be around Rs 1.12 trillion, according to six brokerages, while five brokerages pegged the EBITDA at Rs 14,207.50 crore.

BPCL reported a net loss of Rs 6,542.54 crore in the June quarter of FY23, while its revenue stood at Rs 138,000 crore. In March quarter of FY23, it reported net profit of Rs 6,478 crore and a revenue of Rs 133,000 crore.

Analysts forecast a noteworthy turnaround in retail margin on petrol and diesel from a loss exceeding Rs 15 per litre last year to a positive Rs 7.5 per litre (with the current run-rate standing at Rs 10 a litre) in the quarter under review.

However, the refining segment is likely to remain subdued due to a sharp decline in benchmark Singapore GRMs, which have plummeted by 80 percent on-year and 50 percent on-quarter. A 6 percent on-year growth in throughput is expected to provide some offsetting support to the refining segment's performance.

As a result, the Marketing EBITDA is predicted to rebound significantly from a steep loss in 1QFY23 to a substantial profit in 1QFY24. This robust performance is anticipated to counterbalance the year-on-year decline in gross refining margins (GRM) (due to fuel spread corrections) and the negative impact of inventory loss.

Analysts foresee a remarkable upswing in BPCL earnings. Nuvama predicts that the company will report an EBITDA of Rs 11,500 crore in the June quarter, compared to Rs 4,900 crore a year back and a 5 percent rise over the last quarter. The strength in marketing activities is expected to provide a significant boost, although refining performance is expected to be lackluster.

Important factors to keep a close eye on encompass marketing earnings, Gross Refining Margins (GRMs), inventory loss, as well as changes in working capital, debt, and interest expenses.