Battle for Madhya Pradesh: Kamal or Kamal Nath?

Exit polls varied in predicting a winner, with some expecting the BJP to retain Madhya Pradesh.

With a record-breaking voter turnout of 76.22 percent on November 17, the highest in the state’s history, Madhya Pradesh is poised to choose its new 230-member House later in the day.

The opposition Congress is confident of overthrowing the long-standing BJP government led by Shivraj Chouhan, which has been in power for nearly two decades, except for a brief 15-month period when the Congress took office after the 2018 elections.

A revolt led by its former leader, Jyotiraditya Scindia, and his 22 loyalists in 2020 resulted in the BJP assuming control of the state government.

In the run-up to the polls, the BJP banked heavily on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s charisma and popularity to retain power and relied on the electoral theme “Modi Ke Mann Mein MP” (MP close to Modi’s heart).

The Congress campaigned on the pledge of conducting a caste survey and prioritising the welfare of Other Backward Classes (OBCs), who make up around 48 percent of the state’s population.

The saffron party hasn’t revealed its choice for chief minister in the state and avoided naming Shivraj Singh Chouhan as their face due to a perceived fatigue factor, considering his lengthy tenure in office, while Congress had a clear CM face, Kamal Nath.

However, exit polls varied in predicting a winner, with some expecting the BJP to retain the state, while others anticipated a close race between the saffron party and its arch-rival Congress.

India Today-Axis My India predicted 140-162 seats for the BJP and 68-90 for the Congress, while News 24-Today’s Chanakya forecasted 151 seats for the BJP and 74 for the Congress. India TV-CNX projected 140-159 seats for the BJP and 70-89 seats for the Congress.

P-Marq anticipated a close contest, with both parties expected to secure 103-122 seats. However, the ABP-C Voter poll suggested a clear majority for the Congress with 113-137 seats, while the BJP was predicted to secure 88-112 seats.

As the 2024 Lok Sabha elections near, Madhya Pradesh, with its 30 Lok Sabha seats, holds great significance for the BJP and Congress, both deeply rooted in the state. A win for Congress would add more states to its list, while the BJP aims to secure power in most of these states.