Karnataka Elections: The results are a morale booster to disheartened Congress cadres but chalking national strategy is crucial

Buoyed by massive electoral victories in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh in 2003, the then BJP-led National Democratic Alliance government went for early general elections in May 2004 to capitalise on the "feel good" factor created by these victories.

But this "feel good" factor did not translate into winning seats in the Lok Sabha elections. Voters gave the BJP a huge drubbing, and its main allies, the Telugu Desam Party and the Janata Dal (United), failed to achieve even single-digit results.

This was not the story of 2004 alone. Repeatedly, Indian voters have shown that their preferences for assembly elections and Parliament are different. In Delhi, where the Aam Aadmi Party has won assembly elections since 2013, it failed to repeat that result in the Lok Sabha in 2014 or 2019. The BJP's victory in Karnataka did not help the party nationally in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, which the Congress-led UPA won.

Therefore, the Congress party's victory in Karnataka this time may not mean spring has come for the party, which has endured a political winter since 2014. But the "feel good" factor it has generated will prove a morale booster for disheartened cadres across the country.

Local Leadership Matters

It is ironic, however, that the party’s leaders are once again wasting no time in attributing the Karnataka results to Rahul Gandhi and his Bharat Jodo Yatra, the nationwide padayatra he started in 2022, and not to the hard work and successful messaging of local leaders Siddaramaiah (75), an OBC Kuruba community leader, DK Shivakumar (60), a Vokkaliga, and Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge (80), himself a Dalit, who reminded voters that he is a son of the soil.

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All these three leaders contributed to the party’s performance. However, it is common in the party for victories to be attributed to the Gandhis and losses to the failures of local leaders.

In Congress circles, these elections were important for Kharge’s persona as well. He has delivered Karnataka to the party soon after taking over as the party president last October. The achievement on his home turf has come as a redemption for the octogenarian Dalit leader, who had previously lost the race for chief ministership multiple times since 1999.

Party spokespersons claim the Bharat Jodo Yatra played a key role in mobilising support for the party. Gandhi covered 557 kilometres on foot in Karnataka, spending 21 of his 135-day journey in the southern state. He delivered a speech in Mysuru in pouring rain. The yatra may have raised Gandhi's profile and standing, but apart from the victory in Himachal Pradesh, the response from voters has not been strong so far.

Still, Karnataka is crucial for the party, which has failed to register a solid victory in big state legislatures since its triumphs in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh in 2018. With only three states in its kitty presently, the party also faces a major cash crunch. A state like Karnataka, known for its economic growth, with a GDP of about $240 billion in 2022-23, will help the party's preparations for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

But the frequent dissent and exodus of key leaders have demotivated the grassroots. By last year, 222 of its senior members, including 177 lawmakers, had defected to other parties, resulting in the loss of governments in Arunachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Goa, Karnataka, Puducherry and Manipur.

Congress Regains Primacy

This Congress performance will go a long way in reversing the defeatist mindset and strengthen the party's standing in the opposition. It may not be entirely true that Karnataka was a battle to the death for the Congress, as many writers and analysts believed, but with two humiliating defeats in the 2014 and 2019 general elections and crushing debacles in a series of assembly elections, the party had lost credibility among opposition parties.

Read more on our Karnataka Election Results coverage here

Now it can claim leadership and work for broader opposition unity to counter the BJP juggernaut with some integrity because a united struggle will be a key factor in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Ahead of the crucial 2024 elections, the Congress needed to prove to its constituents that it can beat the BJP in a one-to-one fight. This will also be important for the Congress in the five states where elections are due this year: Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram. In at least three of these states, it will have to compete directly with the BJP.

Since the Lok Sabha elections will be held within a year of the Karnataka state elections, the winning party will get some momentum. But that will not be enough because victory in elections needs a leader, a message and machinery.

Rebuild At Grassroots

With the BJP’s Hindutva campaign in Karnataka that began last year with hijab and halal not succeeding, Congress must realise that bread and butter issues like price rise, inflation and unemployment need to be better foregrounded.

While the Congress will now develop a narrative that the results are a referendum on Modi's performance at the Centre, thus putting Rahul Gandhi with his message at the centrestage, just the economic resources available in Karnataka will not fully help the party mobilise the machinery that requires a combination of resources and dedicated party cadres and booth workers on the ground.

Over the years, the party has lacked such penetration and has been unable to revive itself in key states to reverse the trend of its degeneration. There are some 209 Lok Sabha seats spread across 19 states where the Congress is the main party in the contest. It is true that there are wheels within wheels in Indian politics, but if the Congress can create local and miniature versions of Siddaramaiah, Shivakumar and Kharge in each of these seats, the political winds may shift for the party in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Iftikhar Gilani is a journalist currently based in Ankara, Turkiye. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.