Assembly Elections 2023: Will BJP decision to not project CM faces help or hurt?

Assembly Elections 2023: More than the incumbent Chief Minister and the ex-chief Minister, it is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s face which is a bigger asset for the BJP in these assembly elections.

A heated debate is on about whether BJP’s decision of not projecting the incumbent Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan and its two ex-Chief Ministers Vasundhara Raje and Raman Singh as BJP’s as the CM faces for Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh respectively will help or hurt the electoral prospects of the party. But evidence from past CSDS surveys and the data collected from the pre-poll survey in these three states suggests the party seems to have taken the right decision.

Analysis of the popularity rating of party leaders and vote share of the respective party suggests that a higher popularity rating of the leader, compared to the votes polled by the party is indicative of leaders being able to pull votes for the party on their own popularity. A lower popularity rating of the leader compared to the vote share of the party is indicative of a leader’s inability to pull votes for his/her party.

Data from the post-poll survey conducted by Lokniti-CSDS, during the 2008, 2013 and 2018 Assembly elections helps us understand the popularity rating of Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Raman Singh and Vasundhara Raje during those elections and to understand if they helped the party in garnering votes during those elections.

The popularity rating of Raman Singh was higher compared to the vote share of the party during the 2013 assembly election, but during the 2018 election, his popularity rating was much less compared to the party’s support base. (Table 1).

The latest pre-poll survey for this Chhattisgarh election is also indicating that Raman Singh’s popularity is lower than the vote share estimate for BJP. And this is in a situation when BJP seems to be trailing behind the Congress till a few weeks before the final day of polling.

The pattern was more or less the same in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. In Madhya Pradesh, Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s popularity was higher compared to the party’s voteshare, both during the 2008 and 2013 assembly elections, clearly reflecting his ability to pull votes for his party. But during the 2018 assembly elections, Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s popularity rating was the same as the votes polled by the BJP in that election, a sign of not only his declined popularity but also his declining ability to pull votes for his party. 

The findings of the latest pre-poll survey indicates that there is further decline in his popularity, but it still remains much higher compared to Raman Singh or Vasundharaje Sindhia. Nevertheless, Chouhan’s popularity is lower than the estimated vote share of the BJP based on the pre-poll survey conducted in the last weeks of October.

The story in Rajasthan is not very different. During the 2008 assembly elections Vasundhara Raje’s popularity was much higher compared to the vote share of the BJP in that election, but during the 2018 assembly election her popularity was 11 percentage points lower (28 percent) compared to BJP’s vote share in that election (39 percent).

The estimate of Vasundhara Raje’s popularity and estimated vote share based on the latest pre-poll survey suggests the gap between her popularity and estimated vote share has further widened, an indication of her declining ability to pull votes for her party.

It is no surprise then why BJP decided not to project any of the three leaders as the party’s face in their respective states elections and decided to contest the 2023 assembly elections fronting Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Findings of the 2023 pre-poll survey suggest, sizeable number of those who intend to vote for the BJP in all the three states Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh are willing to vote for the BJP in the name of Narendra Modi.

One does not know if this may be enough for the BJP to win election in all these three states, but evidence does suggest, more than the incumbent Chief Minister and the ex-chief Minister, it is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s face which is a bigger asset for the BJP in these assembly elections, besides party’s popularity and respective candidates in different constituencies.