Assembly Election Results 2023: What lies ahead for the Congress

Assembly Election Results 2023: The Congress needs to put in place a comprehensive strategy to take on PM Modi and the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections.

Ahead of the Lok Sabha elections due in April-May, the Congress suffered yet another electoral setback after it was comprehensively defeated by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan.

The only consolation for the grand old party came from Telangana where it appears to be headed for a comfortable win.

The outcome has once again established the BJP’s supremacy in the Hindi heartland – a hotbed of politics in India and a key to power at the national level, and the Congress party’s dominance in south India.

Gehlot Bows Out

Rajasthan has maintained its 30-year-old tradition of an incumbent government being voted out of power after every five years. A close contest had been predicted between the Congress and the BJP, but the results were contrary to such expectations.

However, this was the best election fought by outgoing chief minister Ashok Gehlot during his career, especially when he led the government. In the past when Gehlot was the chief minister, the Congress was reduced to 56 seats in 2003 and in 2013 the party registered its worst ever performance of 21 seats.

This time, the party’s central leadership visibly looked the other way when it came to aiding Gehlot in campaigning and other election-related works. In fact, former Congress president Rahul Gandhi campaigned in Rajasthan after a gap of over 50 days though he was seen doing back-to-back election rallies in other poll-bound states during that period.

Huge MP, Chhattisgarh Blow

That said, the biggest blow for the Congress came from Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. While it was comfortably placed to win the elections in Chhattisgarh, a neck-and-neck race was predicted in Madhya Pradesh. Perhaps there was a complete disconnect between the reality and the poll surveys, which failed to correctly assess the ground situation.

While there was a talk of fatigue factor and anti-incumbency against the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, a lack of credible BJP face as opposed to outgoing chief minister Bhupesh Baghel was perceived to be one of the main reasons that could help the Congress retain power in Chhattisgarh. The lead in both the states suggests that there was a wave and not just an undercurrent in favour of the BJP.

Many Congress leaders attribute the party’s poor show in Madhya Pradesh to state chief Kamal Nath’s arrogance and autocratic style of functioning. Some even suggested that the entire election campaign and management in the state was handled by his personal staff rather than the All-India Congress Committee (AICC), the party’s central unit.

Southern Comfort

Telangana brought some cheer for the Congress. The party suffered successive setbacks in 2014 and 2018 despite playing a key role in its formation, a move that earned it a massive backlash and reduced it to political margins in the residual state of Andhra Pradesh.

The victory in the country’s youngest state could have a ripple effect on political and electoral dynamics in Andhra Pradesh in the same manner  the Congress party’s win in Karnataka had on Telangana.

The results have also dealt a jolt to the Congress party’s revival efforts in the Hindi heartland. Barring Himachal Pradesh, the Congress party’s presence in the rest of this part of the country has visibly diminished.

What’s The 2024 Strategy?

It was essential for the Congress to put itself on the road to recovery ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The grand old party’s national fortunes clearly hinge on its revival in the states.

With these defeats, the Congress has also lost the bargaining power in the INDIA - (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) - bloc. It can no longer dictate terms to the regional parties and will have to shed its arrogance and the big brother attitude to keep the grouping united in order to give a tough fight to the BJP in the general elections.

It also remains to be seen how these results will impact the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. In the past, the records suggested that the outcome in these states had no bearing on the subsequent national elections.

But before that the Congress needs to put in place a comprehensive strategy to take on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections. It has been well established by now that the same electoral strategy cannot be used for assembly and national elections.

The main challenge for the Congress would be to evolve a plan to counter the BJP’s poll juggernaut charioted by Modi, who remains the popular leader of the country capable of turning any election in his favour. Till then, it is game, set and match BJP.