Lok Sabha elections 2024: What are exit polls?

The first exit poll was conducted in India in 1957.

After the completion of voting in the seventh and final phase of the 18th Lok Sabha elections on June 1, all eyes will be on the outcome of the exit polls.

As soon as the last vote is polled on June 1, exit polls by different agencies will start releasing numbers predicting the anticipated winners and the margin of their victory.

The first exit poll was conducted in India in 1957 when the Indian Institute of Public Opinion carried out a post-poll survey during the second Lok Sabha elections. The state-run broadcaster Doordarshan hired the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies to conduct exit polls across the country in 1996.

It is a survey conducted immediately after voters leave polling stations. To predict the outcome of the polls, the voters are asked questions on which candidate or party they support. These polls are mostly conducted by different private agencies. Exit polls can be performed online or in person. Different agencies utilise different sample sizes and procedures to conduct exit polls.

“Since Exit Polls began in 1957, there has been an enormous improvement in at least one aspect, which is sample size. Gone are the days when a national sample of 20,000-30,000 was considered large," wrote Sanjay Kumar of Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), a New Delhi-based research institute for social sciences and humanities, in Indian Express.

Exit polls in India fall under several laws, including Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act,1951. Any person who contravenes the provisions of the Section 126A shall be punishable with imprisonment for a term which may extend to two years or with a fine or with both.

The Election Commission has the authority to enforce a prohibition that lasts from the start of polling hours on the first day until thirty minutes after polls close on the last day of all phases.