AIMIM's Asaduddin Owaisi enters UP elections, rattles political landscape

Owaisi, known for his vocal stance on Muslim issues, has forged an alliance with Pallavi Patel of Apna Dal (Kamerawadi) under the banner of P.D.M., signaling a bid to consolidate the backward, Dalit, and Muslim vote blocs.

The political dynamics in Uttar Pradesh (UP) have been stirred with the entry of Asaduddin Owaisi's All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM) into the electoral fray for the 2024 general elections. Owaisi, known for his vocal stance on Muslim issues, has forged an alliance with Pallavi Patel of Apna Dal (Kamerawadi) under the banner of P.D.M., signaling a bid to consolidate the backward, Dalit, and Muslim vote blocs.

In a press conference held on March 31 in Lucknow, Owaisi minced no words as he accused the Samajwadi Party (SP) of failing to address the concerns of the Muslim electorate, citing instances of ticket cancellations and marginalization within the party.

The AIMIM chief's incursion into UP politics has ignited a debate over his potential impact on the electoral landscape, particularly in constituencies with significant Muslim populations.

How the AIMIM would impact SP prospect:

1. Electorate Dynamics: UP boasts a sizable Muslim electorate, constituting around 19% of the total voters. Constituencies like Rampur, Amroha, and Bijnor, where Muslims comprise 20 to 30% of the population, have traditionally been SP strongholds. Owaisi's AIMIM, aiming to tap into this demographic, presents a formidable challenge to SP's dominance.

2. Electoral Track Record: Owaisi's foray into UP politics follows his previous electoral engagements, where AIMIM candidates garnered substantial support. In the 2022 assembly elections, AIMIM fielded candidates on 95 seats, securing over 4.5 lakh votes. Notably, their presence impacted SP's electoral prospects, as AIMIM got 7000-10,000 votes in seven constituencies where SP candidate lost by small margin of votes. Had AIMIM votes gone to SP, it would have won the election easily. (SEE BOX)

3. Strategic Targeting: Owaisi's strategic targeting of Muslim-dominated regions, particularly in Western UP, underscores his aim to challenge SP's influence in these areas. His recent visit to Mukhtar Ansari's residence and subsequent interactions with local leaders highlight his concerted efforts to garner support among influential Muslim communities. After this visit Akhilesh too went to Ghazipur, but by then damage has been done.

4. Candidate Selection and Impact: SP's decision to field only three Muslim candidates out of 46 announced so far has raised eyebrows, potentially leaving a void that AIMIM seeks to fill. Owaisi's focus on constituencies where SP lacks Muslim representation, such as Sambhal, signals a direct challenge to the established political order.

5. Previous Electoral Engagements: AIMIM's track record in Maharashtra and Bihar, where it secured wins in select constituencies, serves as a testament to its ability to influence electoral outcomes. With a history of causing disruptions in electoral equations, Owaisi's entry into UP could pose a significant challenge to established political players.

The impending general elections in UP have thus sparked a battle for the Muslim vote bank, with AIMIM emerging as a potential disruptor in the established political order. As political stakeholders brace for a fiercely contested electoral battleground, the outcome remains uncertain, with Owaisi's influence poised to reshape the political landscape in the state.

BOX

The seats in the Assembly election SP lost because of AIMIM

1. Kursi (Barabanki): SP's Rakesh Verma lost by a narrow margin of 217 votes, with AIMIM's Kamil Ashraf Khan securing 8541 votes.

2. Nakur (Saharanpur): BJP's Mukesh Chaudhary emerged victorious with 1,04,114 votes, defeating SP's Dharam Singh Saini by 315 votes, while AIMIM's Rizwana garnered 3593 votes.

3. Shahganj (Jaunpur): The NDA alliance clinched victory with Ramesh Singh securing 86,980 votes, narrowly defeating SP's Shailendra Yadav 'Lalai' (86,514 votes). AIMIM's Nayab Ahmed Khan garnered 8,128 votes.

4. Bijnor: BJP's Mausam triumphed with 97,165 votes, while SP-RLD's Neeraj Chaudhary garnered 95,720 votes. AIMIM's Munir Ahmed secured 2,290 votes.

5. Sultanpur: BJP's Vinod Singh emerged victorious with 92,715 votes, defeating SP's Anoop Sanda (91,706 votes). AIMIM's Mirza Akram Baig secured 5251 votes.

6. Aurai: BJP's Dinanath Bhaskar won by 1647 votes, defeating SP's Anjani. AIMIM's Tedai secured 2190 votes.

7. Moradabad Nagar: BJP's Ratnesh Kumar Gupta secured 1,48,384 votes, narrowly defeating SP's Yusuf Ansari (1,47,602 votes). AIMIM's Waqi Rashid garnered 2661 votes.