Tejashwi's toughest test: RJD confronts shrinking base after Bihar debacle

RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav had confidently marked November 18 as the date of his 'swearing-in ceremony' in Bihar.

With the RJD's tally collapsing to just 25 seats and its core M-Y base visibly fractured, the party's young face now confronts uncomfortable questions about his future and that of the alliance itself.
RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav had confidently marked November 18 as the date of his "swearing-in ceremony" in Bihar. But when the Bihar Assembly results were declared on Friday, the mandate told a very different story.

Tejashwi won his stronghold Raghopur for the third straight term, defeating the BJP’s Satish Kumar, in a see-saw battle. However, his party slipped to its second-lowest tally ever of 25 seats, translating into a steep fall from the 75 it secured as the single-largest party in 2020.

Why the setback for RJD?

Despite Tejashwi's personal appeal and his emergence as the Mahagathbandhan's most credible face, the RJD continues to grapple with the lingering baggage of the "jungle raj" narrative. The party hoped a broader seven-party social coalition would help it expand beyond its traditional base of Muslims and Yadavs. However, the experiment faltered. The Congress, its biggest ally, struggled to mobilise votes, while smaller partners like VIP and the Indian Inclusive Party added little socially.

Seat-sharing disagreements and "friendly fights" within the alliance further muddied voter perception.

On the welfare front, Tejashwi's promise of depositing Rs 30,000 per year into women's accounts under the "Mai Bahin Maan Yojana" could not counter the NDA's already-implemented Rs 10,000 scheme, which had reached over 1.25 crore women. His pledge of "one job per family" also failed to generate the momentum his promise of 1 crore jobs did in 2020.

The party's biggest setback came from its core support base. While Yadav voters largely stayed with the RJD, the Muslim vote splintered sharply in Seemanchal, where AIMIM regained ground in Kishanganj, Katihar, Purnia, and Araria — all crucial to the MGB's arithmetic.

What lies ahead for Tejashwi?

The Bihar verdict marks a moment of reset for the RJD leader. To rebuild, Tejashwi will need to shift from nostalgia-driven messaging to a stronger development-oriented narrative.

Breaking into JD(U)'s Extremely Backward Class (EBC) base which has been a cornerstone of Nitish Kumar's success, will be essential. This time, RJD fielded only 13 EBC candidates compared to JD(U)'s 21.

He must also reconsider how the alliance functions and what roles partners like the Congress and the Left should play going forward. Crafting welfare proposals that are both credible and distinct from the NDA's offerings will be crucial. So will elevating non-family leaders within the RJD to counter perceptions of dynastic dominance.

Tejashwi may have barely managed to save his position as Leader of Opposition in the state Assembly, his immediate challenge is clear. The political future of his party and his own relevance within the RJD and as an Opposition leader, will rest on how consolidate his position and rebuilds the political capital lost in 2025.