Assam CM Himanta Sarma warns of ‘powder keg’ demographics, calls for ‘surgery’ on Bangladesh crisis

In a stark warning that blends strategic alarm with demographic anxiety, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has declared that diplomatic patience with Bangladesh has expired, suggesting a permanent resolution to the ongoing crisis in Dhaka may require a form of “surgery”.

Speaking exclusively to News18 at its Rising Assam Conclave on Monday, the Chief Minister framed Bangladesh’s internal unrest and its trajectory under its current interim government as a direct and severe threat to India’s national security, particularly the fragile northeastern region.

Central to Sarma’s argument is the Siliguri Corridor, the slender strip of land often termed India’s ‘Chicken Neck’. He described it as the nation’s “biggest strategic concern,” noting that Bangladesh territory flanks both sides of this vital artery connecting the Northeast to mainland India.

“A day might come,” Sarma stated, “when India may have to diplomatically or forcibly take 20-22 km of land to secure the region.” He employed a medical metaphor to underscore his point: “When medicine has lost its effectiveness, surgery is needed.” He characterised the corridor’s status as an “unfinished agenda,” while advising patience, noting that “history has its moment.”

The Chief Minister launched a direct assault on Bangladesh’s interim leadership under Mohammed Yunus, expressing confidence to News18 that the administration “would not last long.” He alleged the regime had created “deeply troubling circumstances” for India and its border states.

Sarma linked present vulnerabilities to historical decisions, questioning why land was not secured during the 1971 war that led to Bangladesh’s creation. He blamed Congress-era policies around Partition for current demographic pressures, suggesting a referendum at the time would have seen Bangladeshi Hindus choose India.

The interview took a dramatic turn as Sarma presented a grave picture of Assam’s internal composition. He claimed that 40% of the state’s residents are now of Bangladeshi origin, a dramatic increase from an estimated 10-15% at Independence.

“We are sitting on a powder keg,” he warned, predicting that by the 2027 census, the Hindu and Muslim populations in Assam could reach parity, thereby complicating governance.

On the situation in Bangladesh, Sarma cited incidents of religious violence, including the killing of a Hindu man named Dipu, stating that brutality against any individual was unacceptable but anger “naturally doubled” when the motive was religious identity. He argued that post-Hasina Bangladesh was “moving rapidly towards extremism,” a path which would inevitably create differences with India.

Concluding his remarks to News18, Sarma emphasised Assam’s precarious position as a border state, where external threats and profound internal demographic shifts have created a situation demanding decisive action.