Budget 2026 puts India’s commodity markets in focus

• Budget 2026 to impact commodity prices amid ongoing market volatility
• Gold, silver, copper, aluminum, crude oil, and natural gas prices dropped sharply.
• GST and import duties on commodities vary; crude oil, natural gas exempt from GST

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The Union Budget 2026, to be presented on February 1, comes at a time when commodity markets are going through a volatile phase. Investors and industry participants will be closely tracking policy announcements that could have a bearing on prices, costs and taxation across key commodities.

While commodities are influenced largely by global factors such as interest rates, geopolitical developments and supply dynamics, domestic policy decisions ranging from GST and import duties to excise structures play an important role in shaping market sentiment and pricing trends in India.

Against this backdrop, Budget 2026 assumes significance for the commodity space, particularly for segments such as precious metals, base metals and energy products, which have seen sharp price movements in recent months. Any tweaks in taxation or duty structures could influence cost structures for industries and, eventually, prices paid by consumers.

The timing is crucial as the market braces for fresh volatility in an already volatile commodity sector.  Take prices of gold and silver, for instance —under the precious metals segment— which have surged to historic levels, supplies have tightened, and though investors are booking profits, their shine is gradually becoming dim for many. Similarly, the rise in fuel prices has pinched everyday commuters, influencing fares and access. Overall, affecting one’s personal finances.

Therefore, to understand the health of India’s commodity sector during the Union Budget 2026-27, we measured the top-six performing commodity assets under the bullion and precious metals, base and industrial metals, and energy commodities to watch out for: gold, silver, copper, aluminium, crude oil, and natural gas.

For this purpose, we’ve recorded their current prices and taxation applied to these commodity segments.

Budget 2026: Commodity prices in focus amid market volatility

Prices of gold, silver, copper, aluminium, crude oil, and natural gas have been significantly volatile, driven by a mix of global macroeconomic, geopolitical, and supply-demand factors.

In the latest move, prices of top-performing commodities have plunged sharply after hitting record highs. On MCX, gold futures fell nearly 21.88% from Rs 1,92,097 per 10 grams, silver slid 43.89% from Rs 4,02,048, copper dropped 13.23% from Rs 1,480.30, aluminium plunged 48.75% from Rs 361.25 per kilogram, and crude oil declined 3.29% from Rs 6,135 per barrel over the last 24 hours. Natural gas was also down 2.12% from its peak of Rs 391.90 per mmBtu on December 5, 2025.

The prices of these assets have sharply corrected after the US Fed kept the rates unchanged at 3.5-3.75 percent during the January policy meeting. Traders are now pricing in a further accommodative stance, which has supported their prices. The geopolitical tensions added fuel as US-Iran relations intensified over a nuclear program. The prices are also up amid the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia, the crisis in Gaza, Trump’s tariff threats, and the dollar’s strength.

Budget 2026: Commodity taxation in focus

The GST and import duty structure on major commodities differ as per their form. Gold attracts a uniform GST of 3 percent, with import duty set at 6 percent. Duties on silver vary for Indian residents at 6 percent, staying abroad for more than 6 months or 30 days of short visits during the period, while others are charged 36 percent, comprising 35 percent basic customs duty (BCD) and 1 percent agriculture, infrastructure and development cess (AIDC).

Copper is taxed under varied GST slabs, typically ranging from 12-28 percent, with basic customs duty reduced to nil on scrap metals and 5 percent on refined copper.

Crude oil continues to remain outside the GST framework and is instead subject to excise duty and state VAT, while import duty varies as per its type. Natural gas is also exempt from GST’s radar, while import duties from some countries have been exempt, and vary for others, ranging from 2.5-5 percent for liquid nitrogen gas (LNG) and 5 percent for compressed natural gas (CNG).