Sanjay Kumar

LOK-SABHA-ELECTION

Lok Sabha Polls 2024: It's advantage BJP in the sixth phase of voting, Congress on the back foot

In this phase of polling, the BJP and its allies are defending 45 seats while Congress and its alliance looks to better their 2019 record. The fates of prominent leaders like Maneka Gandhi, Manohar Lal Khattar and Sambit Patra are on the line 

LOK-SABHA-ELECTION

Lok Sabha Elections: It's the battle for Deccan in the fourth phase of polling

The voting in this round of election is for 96 seats across 10 states and UTs but all eyes are on the crucial battle of the Deccan. Here's what to expect

INDIA

Lok Sabha Polls: BJP has a lot to defend in the third phase of voting

It is a crucial phase for the BJP, as it will be defending 73 of the 93 seats that it had won in 2019 while its allies would be defending eight Lok Sabha seats. Its noteworthy that the BJP had won these seats with a whopping vote share of 48%, nearly 11% higher compared to its national average vote share of 37%

LOK-SABHA-ELECTION

Lok Sabha polls: Anxieties yes, can that be enough to upset the electoral calculations of BJP?

What works for BJP, as per the survey, is the Modi factor. Even the issue of electoral bonds has hardly managed to dent the PM's image. The leadership of Modi seems to be pulling votes for the party

ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS

Voters deliver key messages in assembly polls, but will the opposition pay heed?

The opposition is faced with key challenges like how to overcome the Modi magic and how to make voters, especially women, believe that delivery will match promises. Unemployment and price rise are real issues where people are feeling the pinch but the opposition is unable to muster the credibility to show they can do better

ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS

Assembly Elections 2023: Does voter turnout indicate any electoral trend?

Assembly Elections 2023: Turnout figures don’t give us any indication of pro- or anti-incumbency. Nor does turnout reveal anything about extreme social polarisation at the constituency level. It is just an indicator of whether voters showed interest in the election

ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS

Assembly Elections 2023: Can smaller parties upset BJP, Congress calculations in Hindi heartland?

Assembly Elections 2023: Both SP and BSP in Madhya Pradesh in 2018 and BSP in Chhattisgarh in 2008 and 2013 played what can be said to have been crucial roles in the final seat tally in elections that were closely fought

ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS

Assembly Elections 2023: Will BJP decision to not project CM faces help or hurt?

Assembly Elections 2023: Past surveys and vote share data from Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh indicate that a CM face has helped BJP only when the leader’s personal popularity is of a higher order than the party’s vote share. A pre-poll survey of the current elections suggest Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Raman Singh and Vasundhara Raje are trailing their party in popularity, suggesting they aren’t net votecatchers any more

ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS

Assembly Elections 2023: Why the battle in MP and Rajasthan looks close, but not in Chhattisgarh

Assembly Elections 2023: In MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the sitting chief ministers are seen as steady hands. But Shivraj Singh Chouhan faces the burden of a long anti-incumbency and Ashok Gehlot’s fate lies somewhere between the Rajasthan trend of alternating governments and BJP’s disjointed campaigning, while Bhupesh Baghel benefits from a leaderless opposition

INDIA

Bihar Caste Census: Can social justice be the big issue of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections?

The Opposition attempt to foreground “continuing” injustice to OBCs has potency. While the failure to satisfy OBC aspirations can be traced back to all political parties, BJP’s superior messaging could negate the opposition onslaught by selling its own efforts like greater OBC representation in BJP since 2014 and especially for lower OBC groups that feel dominant OBCs cornered the benefits of Mandal 1.0

POLITICS

Three reasons why 2024 is not like the 2004 elections

Those arguing that AB Vajpayee’s surprise defeat in 2004 could be replayed in 2024 are on weak ground. One, Congress has shrunk from 2004 and BJP has expanded, secondly PM Modi’s popularity is of a different order than then PM Vajpayee’s, and finally today’s nationalism and “sabka vikas” narrative is working better than in 2004

ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS

Karnataka Verdict: Don’t conflate politics and elections. One election does not set trends for another state or the whole country

Karnataka poll outcomes were determined by local factors and that holds true for the next round of state elections. As for 2024, people, clearly, vote differently in state and national elections. Even the epitaphs on BJP’s southern foray and JD(S)’s imminent collapse are premature. Politics is a long-range game unlike elections

POLITICS

Karnataka Elections: Its support scattered across regions and communities, can Congress turn this to its advantage?

Karnataka Elections 2023: Unlike elsewhere, Congress has held on to its support base in the state, evident from its consistently higher voteshare, even in losing causes. Congress only has to improve its votes-to-seats conversion from 2018.  So even a minor swing towards it will help GOP

INTERVIEW

Daily Voice | Earnings, inflation, FIIs to determine mood of equity markets over next few months, says this CIO

Earnings trajectory would be key determinant of growth-related price movement, especially in an uncertain macro environment.