BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender | Waiting for Trump
UBS's 2025 forecast points to the 5Ds that are reshaping the global economy--Debt, Deglobalisation, Demographics, Decarbonisation and Digitalization. We would add a sixth D--Donald
BUSINESS
The Household Consumption Survey data for 2023-24 doesn’t fit premiumisation narrative
Monthly Per Capita Expenditure (MPCE) of the top 5 percent of households in urban India fell from Rs20824 in 2022-23 to Rs 20310 in 2023-24, while in rural India it went down from Rs10501 to Rs10137 over the same period
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender | Surreal Santa
Simply put, the markets expected not one but two Santas--Santa Trump and Santa Powell
BUSINESS
The Nehru Narrative: What the economic numbers say
Nehru’s record on economic growth was worse than that of most comparable countries
BUSINESS
Markets too bullish for comfort, says global fund manager survey
The Bank of America survey of global fund managers says that the only times cash allocation among global fund managers was near December 2024 levels were back in January -March 2002 and in February 2011, which were huge tops in risk assets. Wednesday’s sharp fall in the markets supports the BofA view
BUSINESS
Flash PMI indicates growth is accelerating at the end of 2024
The PMI survey shows that demand at the end of the year is strong, animal spirits are high and jobs are plentiful while inflation pressures are subsiding. It’s a wonderful start to 2025
BUSINESS
Fed rate cut almost a certainty this week, but next year is a different story
While a 25-basis point cut is priced in for the FOMC meeting this week, the markets are expecting a shallower easing trajectory next year and higher level of rates at the end of the loosening cycle
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender | Back to the 1930s
The state of the world at present echoes that of the 1930s, this time with nukes
BUSINESS
November retail inflation strengthens case for February rate cut
Not only did food prices fall by 0.6 percent from the previous month, but overall retail prices too were also lower by 0.15 percent
BUSINESS
Book Review | The Rocky Road to Prosperity
Prosenjit Datta’s book is a rare find in these lamentably polarised times—it is an impartial analysis that weighs the pros and cons carefully and hopes that policy makers have the good sense to make our dream of becoming a developed economy come true in our lifetimes
BUSINESS
Are Indian businesses getting smaller?
The share of employment in non-farm establishments employing 5 workers or less has gone up in the past five years. Around three-quarters of workers in the non-agricultural sector are employed in businesses having 9 workers or less
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender | Why consumers have turned penny-pinchers
Going by the RBI's consumer survey, people are saying there's more to the consumer slowdown than inflation--lower incomes and deteriorating job prospects are an underlying structural reason
BUSINESS
Quick Take | PMI data for November signals to the MPC that growth is fine, but core inflation is rising
The PMI data for November, which track month-on-month changes, are very upbeat and in marked contrast to the Q2 GDP numbers
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Panorama | Q2 GDP shocker is yesterday’s news, what matters is the outlook
In the December 2 edition of Moneycontrol Pro Panorama: GDP shocker can play spoilsport on markets, growth slumped but unemployment rate drops, the growth drivers in Q2 explained, India's economic ties with Bangladesh faces China challenge, and more
BUSINESS
What were the drivers of growth in Q2?
Out of the GVA growth of 5.6 percent in Q2, the contribution of services was 4.1 percentage points. The rest of the economy contributed the balance 1.5 percentage points. That’s how lopsided growth was in Q2
BUSINESS
Q2 miracle: when growth slumped, the unemployment rate came down
While real GDP growth fell from 6.8 percent in Q1, FY 25 to 5.4 percent in Q2, the urban unemployment rate improved from 6.6 percent to 6.4 percent, according to the quarterly PLFS survey
BUSINESS
Did RBI’s tightening of credit regulations lead to the growth slowdown in Q2?
Growth in non-food bank credit outstanding has been slowly decelerating and it has come down from 13.6 percent in August to 11.5 percent in October and further to 11.15 percent by mid-November
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender | Q2 GDP growth falls off a cliff: pressure to cut rates increases
It is under the unenviable circumstances of growth being well below expectations and inflation being well above expectations that the MPC will have to decide whether to cut rates at its meeting next week
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender | In Trump We Trust
There is great disorder under Heaven. The situation is excellent
BUSINESS
Flash PMI shows growth accelerating, but so is core inflation
HSBC Flash PMI survey says “the rate of inflation was sharp and the fastest in just under 12 years. Firms suggested that demand strength allowed them to pass on additional cost burdens to their clients”
BUSINESS
We need a Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in India too
Total government expenditure in India, at 29.1 percent of GDP in 2023, is quite high among emerging Asian nations. Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam all have much lower government spending to GDP ratios than India
BUSINESS
Should monetary policy be hostage to vegetable prices?
The overall CPI index has moved up from 147.2 in October 2019 to 196.8 in October 2024, an increase of a third in 5 years. And the Food & Beverage index has gone up by 40 percent over the period. Small wonder that the consumption of the masses has been hit
BUSINESS
SIP inflows at record highs, but will household flows into equities start tapering soon?
Equities as a percentage of household assets is about the same in India as in the UK, which is strange, given that India is a much poorer country
BUSINESS
The Second Coming: How Jerome Powell aided and abetted Donald Trump's return
Much attention has been paid to Fed chair Jerome Powell’s remark that he wouldn’t resign even if Trump wants him to. But if a research paper from the Institute of New Economic Thinking is right, he need have no fears on that score. On the contrary, the President-elect should give him a medal because the Fed had, through its misguided policies, helped create the economic conditions for the Trump victory
