Moneycontrol Pro Weekender | Humpty Trumpty

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Dear Reader,

So, this is what ‘Move Fast and Break Things’ is like. Donald Trump imposed steep tariffs on Canada and Mexico, rolled them back for automobiles, threatened reciprocal tariffs on all countries by April 2, then rolled back half the tariffs on Mexico and Canada while warning they may be reimposed on April 2 —all in the space of one frenetic week. Also, in his address to Congress, he said he was doing better than George Washington and made many such tall claims, to repeated standing ovations from Republican Congressmen. If governance were a form of performance art, Trump would be its undisputed maestro, the painter of a surreal world that could only be matched by the likes of Salvador Dali.

Fact, they say, is stranger than fiction and perhaps the best way to understand Trump is to look to fiction, in particular non-sense fiction.

The Cheshire Cat Road Map

Analysts, economists and market pundits are all flummoxed about the direction in which Trump is taking the US. But it’s obvious that he’s following the road map laid down by the Cheshire Cat in Alice in Wonderland.

Here’s the conversation:

‘Alice: Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?

Cheshire Cat: That depends a good deal on where you want to get to.

Alice: I don’t much care where—

Cheshire Cat: Then it doesn’t matter which way you go.’

That’s crystal clear. And a bit further in that erudite conversation, we find something that can completely explain Trump’s actions:

“‘But I don't want to go among mad people,' Alice remarked. ‘Oh, you can't help that,' said the Cat: ‘we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad.' ‘How do you know I'm mad?' said Alice. ‘You must be,' said the Cat, ‘or you wouldn't have come here.'’’

The Humpty Dumpty Master Plan

For his contradictory utterances and changing policies, Trump looks up to Humpty Dumpty, who, in Through the Looking Glass, gives a master class in communication:

“When I use a word”, Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less”. “The question is”, said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things”. “The question is”, said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master — that's all”.

That’s what Trump’s tariffs are all about -- being the master.

Trump also has no doubt he is a very important person, and models his behaviour on Humpty Dumpty, who told Alice: “Now, take a good look at me! I'm one that has spoken to a King, I am: mayhap you'll never see such another: and, to show you I'm not proud, you may shake hands with me!”

And if you charge Trump with saying the exact opposite of what he said yesterday, he will say, like Alice said to the Mock Turtle: “It’s no use going back to yesterday, because I was a different person then.”

The Hunting of the Snark’s Gameplan

Confused about DOGE’s cavalier methods of hunting for fraud and corruption in government? ‘The Hunting of the Snark’ by Lewis Carroll explains the procedure admirably. Consider, for example, these memorable lines:

‘They sought it with thimbles, they sought it with care;

They pursued it with forks and hope;

They threatened its life with a railway-share;

They charmed it with smiles and soap.’

The chaotic quest in ‘The Hunting of the Snark’ is Elon Musk’s role model. The hunt for corruption similarly is an elaborate spectacle, filled with vague claims, larger-than-life gestures and self-congratulatory tweets, full of contradictions and delusions.

The Walrus and the Carpenter’s Populist Programme

Trump has adopted his populist strategy from the poem ‘The Walrus and the Carpenter’ in ‘Through the Looking Glass’.

Just as the Walrus and the Carpenter pretend to be friendly and caring towards the young oysters, Trump too pretends to be a champion of the masses.

“'O Oysters, come and walk with us!'

The Walrus did beseech.

'A pleasant walk, a pleasant talk,

Along the briny beach…'"

Trump lured working-class Americans with promises of jobs, economic revival, and “draining the swamp”, just as the Walrus lures the oysters with flattery and false promises.

The young, naive oysters eagerly follow the Walrus, trusting his words, only to be devoured in the end.

“‘I weep for you,’ the Walrus said: ‘I deeply sympathize.’ With sobs and tears he sorted out, Those of the largest size.”

The end of the poem, which could give us clues about Trump’s future strategy for the masses, goes like this:

‘O Oysters, said the Carpenter,

You've had a pleasant run!

Shall we be trotting home again?'

But answer came there none —

And this was scarcely odd, because

They'd eaten everyone.

The Akond of Swat’s Grand Strategy

The Akond of Swat is a poem by Edward Lear, the master of nonsense verse. In case you aren’t familiar with this masterpiece, the initial lines go like this:

“Who, or why, or which, or what, Is the Akond of SWAT?

Is he tall or short, or dark or fair?

Does he sit on a stool or a sofa or a chair,

or SQUAT,

The Akond of Swat?’’

The whole strategy, as you can see, is to keep them guessing. Moved by the spirit of the poem, I have applied it to Donald Trump. Here goes:

"Who or why or what kind of chump

Is Donald Trump?

Is he a king? Or just a clown?

Does he stand tall, or does he stand down?

A mastermind of grand deceit,

Or just a man who loves a tweet?

So loud! So bold! So vain! So plump!

What kind of chump is Donald Trump?"

Cheers,

Manas Chakravarty

In case you missed them, here are some of the stories and insights we published this week, apart from our technical picks in the equity, commodity and forex markets:

Stocks

Should one bet on Prudent after the sharp fall? Sirca Paints, Sundaram Finance, Mrs Bectors Food Specialities: Healthy earnings growth to resume from FY26, Lemon Tree Hotels, Cochin Shipyard, IKS Health: Can this stock restore your portfolio’s health? Aadhar Housing: Growth story continues with steady asset quality, CSB Bank, February 2025 auto sales, LTTS: Poised for growth despite automobile sector slowdown, IEX, International Gemmological Institute of India: A niche play with healthy growth prospects, Weekly tactical pick

Markets

US yields are finally falling, but for the wrong reasons

Why trying to catch the market bottom may be a futile exercise

US 10-year yield: Trump 2.0’s favourite metric – What it means for the markets

When the music stopped playing for traders

Banks are stronger than ever—So why are their stocks falling?

Sebi tightens the noose on derivative trading

Unlocking India's mutual fund potential

Is gold’s gravity-defying act reason enough to alter its long term allocation?

Financial Times

The Trump put is bad

Martin Wolf: The economic costs of Trump’s assault on the global order

How big is the stock market’s America bubble?

What corporate credit spreads are signalling on returns

Tariff Tuesday: into the unknown

Companies & sectors

Retail auto sales belie hopes of broad-based consumption recovery

Why the rising trend in cement prices may not sustain

Voltas’s leadership in ACs should yield better profit margins

Rising AC usage is sending electricity demand to record levels

A long road to normalcy for SpiceJet

What does RBI’s corporate performance data in Q3 tell us about India Inc's health?

RBI Governor Malhotra is the new Sheriff in town

How RBI under Malhotra is playing the liquidity puzzle

Economy & Policy

The road to 2047: Can India break free from ‘Business-as-Usual’?

Manufacturing's share in economy in 2024-25 at same level as 18 years ago

India’s middle-class market: How big is it really?

How serious is the IMF warning on NBFC concentration risk in India?

Private sector non-financial firms’ share of capex tumbles in 2023-24

Capital goods order flows reflect capex slowdown, but is it a blip?

Industry loan growth signals a late recovery of private capex

Pro Economic Tracker

Geopolitics & geoeconomics

Project 2025: Disowned by Trump, yet echoing his agenda

Which economies are most at risk from Trump's tariff wars?

China’s Two Sessions meeting: Domestic demand takes centre-stage in economic strategy

Shifting Sands: What Trump’s policy moves mean for India-US ties

India’s FTA with the EU will face a Trump problem

Personal Finance

Are women risk-averse?

Politics

North vs South: The growing tensions over delimitation

Tech & Startups

Startup Street: A contrasting tale of two mega acquisitions

Founder stakes in unicorn startups decline amid a challenging funding environment

Shattered Frames: Technicolor layoffs expose deepening crisis in India's VFX and animation industry