BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender | ‘Tis the season to be jolly
The growth bounceback expected in the last quarter of this year may be stronger than postulated under baseline assumptions, says an RBI report
BUSINESS
Book Review: ‘Trade Wars are Class Wars’ by Matthew Klein and Michael Pettis
The authors’ provocative thesis is that it isn’t friction between countries but rising inequality within countries that has led to the current trade wars
BUSINESS
MPC minutes show unease over persistence of excess liquidity
Some MPC members have started to discuss the pernicious effects of too much liquidity and its effect on inflation.
BUSINESS
2020: The K-shaped year
The coronavirus pandemic has brought into focus the duality and contradictions in the system
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender | What could go wrong?
Concerns about inflation are rising once again. We wondered whether inflation could spoil the party in the equity markets
BUSINESS
Could inflation spoil the party in the asset markets?
A rise in inflation could be the one thing that would force central banks to start tightening
BUSINESS
Chart of the Day | Good news on inflation
The wholesale price index bears out the PMI data on firms starting to pass on input price hikes, with the highest month-on-month increase in the manufactured products index in years
BUSINESS
The new farm laws will usher in the structural transformation of Indian agriculture
The farm reforms aim to create conditions for small farmers to survive, if not thrive, by linking farms to markets and agribusinesses, thereby trying to create a dynamic, modern agricultural sector
BUSINESS
Does lower growth result in more jobs?
It’s a great comfort that the urban unemployment rate falls in India, according to government data, even when economic growth stalls
BUSINESS
Bank loans have picked up sharply, but is it due to pent-up demand for credit?
It is very likely that the fall in credit to large companies is because they were able to access funds from other quarters, such as the debt and equity markets and through foreign direct investment
BUSINESS
India’s two-speed economy
The growth rate in real income for the top 10 percent is twice that for the rest of the population
BUSINESS
The US Fed justifies high equity market valuations
The US Fed’s Financial Stability Report has several soothing things to say about asset prices
BUSINESS
We should see a top in asset prices in the current quarter or early next year
A net 36 percent of global fund managers are overweight emerging markets, the highest level since February 2020, says Bank of America survey
BUSINESS
Are higher equity market returns the result of a lower share of income for labour?
An NBER research paper lays bare the conflict between the interests of shareholders and that of workers
BUSINESS
The tales economists spin
A new IMF working paper titled ‘Crouching Beliefs, Hidden Biases: The Rise and Fall of Growth Narratives’ looks at the changing orthodoxy on economic growth. But, as Eugene Fama says, is the business of central banks really like pornography?
BUSINESS
The rise in wholesale price inflation is a sign of economic recovery
As demand comes back, deflation in manufactured products is coming down
BUSINESS
The slight growth in industrial production in September is largely a mirage
The 0.2 percent growth in September 2020 is on top of a contraction of 4.6 percent in September 2019
BUSINESS
Lockdown leads to household savings glut
Where was the extra saving deployed? The biggest chunk went into cash holdings, which shot up to 5.4 percent of GDP, from 1.4 percent for 2019-20 as a whole
BUSINESS
GDP nowcast shows India has slipped into a recession
Elevated inflationary pressures persisted in October, with a poll of professional forecasters putting consumer price inflation at 7.3 percent for the month
POLITICS
The Drinking Man’s Guide to the Bihar Elections
A chat over drinks with a self-styled political pundit on potential reasons for Nitish Kumar's declining popularity
POLITICS
The bizarre charm of Donald Trump
Why Trump did so well in the election in spite of all his faults
BUSINESS
China can no longer rely on its old development model, nor can India
India’s exports/GDP ratio was slightly higher than China’s in 2019
BUSINESS
Despite economic distress, central government spending lower than last year in first half
Central government expenditure in the first half of 2020-21 was 99 percent of spending in same period of the last fiscal year.
BUSINESS
Even if Biden wins, there will be no return to the pre-Trump era
The earlier policies of multilateralism, globalisation and free trade have not been able to reverse US decline
