BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender: A Modern Christmas Carol
Jay Powell meets the ghosts of markets past, present and future
BUSINESS
RBI researchers warn against hasty rate cuts
The State of the Economy report underlines the fact that the objective of aligning inflation with the target on a durable basis is far from assured
BUSINESS
Tepid performance of unlisted companies may be the reason for sluggish corporate capex
A report titled “The Role of The Unlisted Corporate Sector in India’s Economy”, by Motilal Oswal economist Nikhil Gupta points out that while the listed part of the corporate sector has been going great guns, making huge profits and reducing its debt, the unlisted corporate sector hasn’t been doing so well
BUSINESS
IMF report points to uneven growth, low productivity in Indian economy
The report says that if 5 percent of the agriculture workforce were to shift into either services or manufacturing, it could contribute up to 1.2 percentage points to value added growth
BUSINESS
Don't take central bank pivots for granted, say flash PMIs
The US Flash Composite PMI for December is at a 5-month high, putting it at odds with Powell’s recent ultra-dovish message
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender: Jerome Powell and the Wizard of Oz
If Powell succeeds in steering the US economy to a soft landing, it will be a remarkable achievement, and history will know him as the Wizard of the Fed
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Panorama | The more the Fed gives, the more the market wants
In today's edition of Moneycontrol Pro Panorama: COP28 holds little importance for NTPC investors, regional political parties and dynasties, generative AI a cybersecurity challenge for businesses, NPS needs more strengthening, and more
BUSINESS
The Fed will have to consider a massive easing of financial conditions
The Chicago Fed’s measure of financial conditions in the US is at its lowest level in a year, indicating substantial easing. Easing financial conditions work against the Fed’s attempt to tighten monetary policy
BUSINESS
Smoke and mirrors in October industrial production numbers
While the year-on-year IIP growth figures for October 2023 are very strong for all sectors, the same can’t be said for month-on-month growth
BUSINESS
Core retail inflation continues to fall in November. That’s a comfort for RBI
The recent meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee had pointed out that core disinflation is steady, but headline inflation remains volatile due to recurrent food price shocks
BUSINESS
Why have jobs as unpaid helpers increased when GDP growth is 7.6 percent?
While the unemployment rate has come down, the rise in the proportion of unpaid helpers and of workers in agriculture point to disguised unemployment
BUSINESS
RBI surveys show disconnect between strong GDP growth and consumer confidence
With GDP growth at 7.8 percent in the June 2023 quarter and 7.6 percent in the September quarter, why aren’t perceptions about income growth and employment growth in the RBI survey better?
BUSINESS
BIS paper says significant tightening could lie ahead even if central banks stop raising policy rates
How realistic are expectations of a soft landing for advanced economies? How did the Fed Funds rate move during previous tightening episodes? Is this time different? The outlook for asset prices depends on answers to these questions
BUSINESS
What to look for in the Q2 GDP numbers
RBI Bulletin’s State of the Economy Report for October 2023 said their economic activity index (EAI) put GDP growth for Q2 2023-24 at 6.8 per cent
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender: The Wealth Effect
The Finance Ministry monthly economic review says increasing exposure of retail investors to mutual funds and equities has resulted in a wealth effect, supporting consumption
BUSINESS
Emkay’s Seshadri Sen says 6%+ economic growth needs recovery in mass incomes
Adverse geopolitical outcomes, according to the market observer, pose a major risk though the worst have been digested by markets
BUSINESS
How do the poll-bound states fare on the Misery Index?
According to the Misery Index, Rajasthan is the most miserable, while Chhattisgarh is the least. But a more nuanced look is needed, taking into account how many of those counted as employed are actually in disguised unemployment
BUSINESS
The contradictions at the heart of OpenAI
The belief that a technology as powerful as AI can be overseen by a non-profit entity is a Utopian one
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender: Crystal ball gazing
It's that time of the year when economists and market strategists start making their forecasts for the year ahead
BUSINESS
Is this the end of Higher-for-longer?
The fall in inflation in the US confirms the view of investors that both inflation and interest rates are headed lower next year, leading to a rally in the bond and equity markets
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender: Ode to consumption
Can consumption continue to support growth? We'll soon know how strong festive demand has been
BUSINESS
Dependency on free foodgrains signals the demographic dividend can become a nightmare
A Niti Aayog document says, ‘’Despite the large public expenditure, gains in the food security and nutritional outcomes in India have been slow. India accounts for roughly 30 percent of the global burden of hunger.’’
BUSINESS
Job growth in India much lower than increase in working age population
The figure for employment in agriculture and allied sectors in 2020-21 in India was the highest since 2008-09 and is a sign of disguised unemployment
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender: Powell’s present
Back home, the PMI data show that while growth is robust, it is decelerating
